Low Risk High Reward: Geno Smith A Rare QB1 Value Late In Drafts

Some fantasy managers would like to cling to the strategy of waiting as long as possible to find their starting QB, even if times seem to be changing. One option for those who like to wait could be Daniel Jones, whose potential I covered here, but who does carry a lot of risk. If you’re looking for a player who will carry a similarly low ADP, but maybe doesn’t have as catastrophic a floor, Geno Smith could be your guy.

I will admit, I was slow to accept that what Smith was accomplishing last season was real. I entered the season expecting Drew Lock to start ahead of him, so there is no doubt that I was hesitant to embrace the idea of Geno Smith, good NFL starter. However, Smith finished as a QB1! Even if injuries to some guys might have diluted the pool, there’s no doubt that Smith was a quality player, who finished with 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and the best completion percentage in the league. Once upon a time fantasy managers and Seahawks fans alike cried “Let Russ Cook!” to the heavens, only for Pete Carroll to ignore them and lead one of football’s most run-heavy offenses. Last season, Carroll’s first in a long time without Russell Wilson, he trusted Smith and Seattle was firmly in the middle of the pack, uncorking the 15th-most pass attempts in football. And while RB Kenneth Walker is a stud and will be a focal point of their offense, the Seahawks paid Smith this offseason, did not draft an obvious successor, and massively upgraded his weaponry for the 2023 season.

Smith finished among PFF’s Top 10 QBs, with his 79.3 grade tying Kirk Cousins and coming in ahead of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. He also finished with the ninth-most Effective Yards per Football Outsiders, racking up 4,266 vs. the actual 3,888 he put up, meaning there’s upward mobility on his surprising passing performance. Overall, Smith spearheaded a passing offense that was eighth in Pass DVOA (24.1%) and only 23rd in Rush DVOA, validating Carroll’s decision to entrust Smith to let it rip. It’s not all Smith though. We must credit one of the best WR duos in the NFL, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, both of whom ranked inside PFF’s Top 25 last season. Both of those elite receivers are returning to support Smith, and they’re being joined by first round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the top WR prospect in the 2023 draft class and a player whom many considered the best prospect on an Ohio State team that he was on with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams. Smith made his bones on TD rate and efficiency last year – he only averaged 251.9 yards per game – and having elite pass catchers can help a QB maintain TD rates in the 5% range where he’s been the last two years.

While this is all well and good, pocket passers, even hyper efficient ones, are often underwhelming fantasy options. In a landscape where more and more QBs are putting up gaudy rushing numbers, Smith is quietly a contributor. He earned an 83.8 rushing grade from PFF (tied for 8th with Jalen Hurts), and averaged 21.5 yards per game as a rusher. His 366 rushing yards matched his career high, which he set as a rookie with the Jets. Last year he rushed for only one touchdown, as opposed to six in that rookie campaign. Touchdowns are fickle, so if he continues to run at this rate it’s easily within reach for him to increase that total and boost himself even more.

Ultimately, Smith isn’t likely to be a league-winning guy at the position. He doesn’t have the upside of a Jalen Hurts-esque ascension, nor is he going to throw with enough volume to start competing with pocket passers like Joe Burrow. But with his improvements, combined with the sick talent around him, he runs enough that he figures to be a low-end QB1, and he will not be viewed as such on Draft Day because your league mates will be targeting more exciting players.