Leap To Elite: Chigoziem Okonkwo Is Ready To Be One of The Best Values In Fantasy Football

One of my favorite offseason activities is hunting for the next big thing at TE. I identified Mark Andrews as making the leap in 2021, and Dallas Goedert last season, which were good calls. In 2023, I have my eyes on Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, who came on strong at the end of 2022 and figures to be a staple of Tennessee’s offense.

Okonkwo only started eight games as a rookie, so don’t be alarmed at his 32-reception, 450-yard, three touchdown final line. That’s actually damn good for a rookie TE who only started about half his games. He proved to be a highly efficient player, which is important if he’s going to thrive for fantasy managers in an offense that revels in it’s battering ram mentality. The Titans’ offense begins and ends with RB Derrick Henry, who monopolizes touches and scoring opportunities; the way for pass-catchers to succeed is through efficient chunk plays, which Okonkwo has shown he’s capable of. He averaged 14.1 yards per reception last year, tops among all TEs with at least 40 targets. Okonkwo graded as PFF’s No. 8 TE in 2023, but he quietly earned the third-best receiving grade at the position, bested only by Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Pretty good company. Need more? I can give you more. Okonkwo was Top 10 per Football Outsiders in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (82) and fifth in TE DVOA (20.2%).

Now you may be worried about his offense, and that’s fair. Andrews had Lamar Jackson targeting him, and Goedert had Jalen Hurts. While both of those QBs had some questions about their pure passing ability, both possessed the upside of truly elite QBs in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill does not possess that, and could either lose his job in season, or in training camp if rookie Will Levis impresses. So we have a tenuous QB situation, and an extreme run-heavy offense working against our boy here. It can still work. Much like Andrews in 2021, the target pie is smaller than it would be in other offenses, but Okonwko’s going to have a bigger piece. He was fifth on the team in 2022 in targets despite making only eight starts, and this year 151 targets have been vacated by the top two most-targeted Titans of 2022, Robert Woods (91) and Austin Hooper (60). Of course I’m not saying Okonkwo’s about to absorb an additional 150 targets, but 75-90 is a reasonable baseline expectation, which would put him in a group that includes Dalton Schultz, George Kittle, David Njoku, Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet. With that target share, at his efficiency, Okonkwo could be a very nice value in drafts even without a top QB. 

As for the QB situation, while Levis and Malik Willis lurk, the job is likely still Tannehill’s in 2023. Both of those QBs are raw prospects, and neither has first round capital attached. And while the Titans threw the third-fewest passes in the NFL last season they did manage a Top 20 passing DVOA, which is workable. Tannehill was firmly in the middle of the pack per Football Outsiders’ QB DVOA metric (16th, 4.3%). He’s no Jackson or Hurts, but Tannehill has proven he’s capable enough of supporting a big time pass-catching fantasy contributor.

That leads us to the final point in Okonkwo’s favor, which is he has a legitimate shot at being the primary pass-catcher for this team. Robert Woods led the team in targets, but he was no leading man. They traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles in the offseason, and drafted Treylon Burks to be Brown’s stand-in. Except, Burks was not ready for that role, had a rocky camp and was an inconsistent player in Year 1. Burks graded well, but had four games with three or fewer targets and never saw more than eight targets in any of his 11 games. He’s promising, but hardly a lock to take over the alpha role in Tennessee’s passing game. Meanwhile Okonkwo was able to put up a position-best yards per catch mark despite a pedestrian 7.6 average depth of target, showing high-end ability after the catch. Okonkwo was consistently doing damage after the catch on shorter, more reliable targets which will suit him for higher volume as the team tries to limit Tannehill’s potential to shoot himself in the foot.

Perhaps the offense/QB combination limits Okonkwo from a truly Andrews-esque breakout, but he’s definitely in line for a very productive TE1 campaign. And hey, maybe Levis really shines in camp and surprises everyone?