Leap To Elite: Antonio Gibson Is An Elite RB Who Just Needs Usage
Antonio Gibson was a roller coaster for basically all of 2022, even before the season began. During training camp his ADP dropped like a broken elevator because of non-stop rumors that he was in head coach Ron Rivera’s doghouse, as well as the Commanders drafting Brian Robinson. Then, Robinson was shot in the summer, which would cause him to be out of action for the beginning of the season, and Gibson played well.
Robinson missed the first four games of 2022, and in that time Gibson averaged 68.6 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. He was active as both a rusher and receiver, and showed goal line chops, scoring both touchdowns on the ground from the one-yard line. Then, Robinson returned and averaged 17.1 carries per game from Weeks 5-17, eclipsing 20 carries five times in that span. And Robinson was good! None of this is to slight Robinson, or denigrate his worthiness of such a workload; Robinson is a big bodied, talented rusher who was drafted for that kind of workload. But that level of usage relegated Gibson to a role he’s simply too good for.
Per PFF, Robinson graded inside the Top 10 of RBs, while Gibson checked in at No. 23. So Washington looks to have one of the best RB duos in football heading into 2023. But the overall ranking is misleading, because it’s so heavily weighted toward Robinson based on his elite 81.0 rushing grade. Gibson graded 70.9, which is nothing to sneeze at, and was highly superior as a receiver (80.5 vs. 65.2) and pass blocker (75.1 vs. 46.9). The pass blocking grade is especially shocking, because his pass blocking was what many believed landed him out of favor with the Washington coaches.
Gibson’s overall production is very underwhelming due to the many games in which he just wasn’t on the field to get touches. His snap % was below 50% 10 times in the 15 games he played, and yet he still finished the year with 899 yards from scrimmage, and five touchdowns. He has shown that he can be efficient, averaging 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie and scoring 11 touchdowns on the ground with just 170 attempts, as well as a nose for the end zone, striking paydirt 21 times in his first two campaigns. In 12 games of action, Robinson caught just nine passes, so playing time is wide open for Gibson in games that become pass-heavy. Gibson has a clear, mostly unobstructed path to passing situation/third down usage already in an offense that’s quietly beginning to look more formidable on paper. He also has the potential to become the lead back in the event of a Robinson injury, and we’ve seen Gibson handle 250+ carries in his second season, and 2022 was the first time in his career he failed to score double-digit touchdowns.
Gibson is going to be a major value on draft day because of they hype that will go toward Robinson, and many fantasy managers overlooking the target void being left behind by J.D. McKissic, who saw 40 targets in just eight games. It’s entirely conceivable that all of McKissic’s receiving work could go right to Gibson, who is a more talented and explosive player. Gibson will be a start-worthy player all year long even if Robinson hogs the carries, but should Robinson go down, Gibson has league-winning potential.