Leap To Elite: Daniel Jones Resembles Josh Allen Before He Was a QB1

I’ve made the mistake of believing in Daniel Jones in the past. Ahead of the 2021 season, I wrote he might be the sneakiest QB value in drafts that year, and he responded with a 10-touchdown season in 11 games. I’m stopping short of calling my shot this season, but a lot of the things that were appealing about Jones in 2021 remain, and he has a head coach that has a track record of getting the most out of Jones’ archetype.

Of course, I’m referring to Brian Daboll, who led the Giants to a shocking playoff berth last season, and also unleashed the full potential of Josh Allen while he was the Bills’ offensive coordinator. Daboll joined the Bills in 2018, Allen’s rookie season, and by 2020 Allen was among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In 2019, his second season, Allen threw for just 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions, and had zero games with 300+ passing yards. He did, however, have a very promising rushing floor; Allen averaged 6.8 attempts per game, 4.7 yards per carry, 31.9 yards on the ground and he scored nine touchdowns.

Let’s look at Jones in Year 1 with Daboll. Jones had just two games with 300+ yards, and he threw a miniscule 15 touchdown passes, the third straight season in which he failed to eclipse the 15-TD mark. But, like Allen, he was very productive on the ground, an area in which the previous regime didn’t fully unlock him. Jones rushed 7.5 times per game, the fifth-most among QBs last season, 5.9 yards per carry and seven touchdowns as a rusher. It would be silly to compare Jones to Allen as an overall athlete, but as a rusher Jones is a lot closer to Allen than many would realize, and Daboll is wisely leaning into his ability as a playmaker in that capacity to overcome a lack of surrounding talent at the skill positions.

Does Jones have Allen’s cannon-esque arm? Not even close. But Jones has improved year after year as a caretaker of the football, going from 12 interceptions and 19 total fumbles as a rookie to just five interceptions and six total fumbles in 2022. Jones completed a career-best 67.2% of his passes last year, and dealt with easily the least talent at the pass-catching positions that he’s ever had in his NFL career. Jones is playing behind an improving offensive line, with a premier dual threat RB at his disposal (Saquon Barkley), and a brand new top target in TE Darren Waller, who dramatically improves the receiving outlook for this team and opens opportunities for WRs Isaiah Hodgins and Wan’Dale Robinson. Waller isn’t quite on the same level as Stefon Diggs, but Diggs joined the Bills in 2020 and suddenly Allen leapt to elite status.

I am not..I repeat, NOT saying Daniel Jones is about to become Josh Allen. I am saying that Jones is comparable as a rusher to Allen, and is playing under the man who elevated Allen to his best self. Jones may not be all that, but he can be an elite rusher for the position, which makes him a better option than a lot of “better” pure quarterbacks, provided his passing stats can come up just a bit. Can Jones get to 20-25 passing touchdowns? Can he get to 3,500 yards? Well, he was Top 15 in Effective Yards per Football Outsiders, with 3,134, which is nearly 200 more yards than he actually threw for.

If he can, with his rushing baseline, Jones is going to be a fantasy relevant player in single-QB leagues. On draft day, he should be close to free, so he represents big value at a position where value is disappearing.