Russell Wilson Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season And Where Should We Draft Him in 2023?

Russell Wilson was easily one of the biggest busts in fantasy in 2022, and is one of the more shocking disasters in recent memory. The Broncos traded a ton for their franchise QB, and he rewarded them with the worst season of his career. The contract he signed makes him borderline unmovable, so he will be under center for Denver for the near future. Is 2022 the norm, or can the Broncos – and fantasy managers – hope for him to be relevant once again?

Wilson’s downfall was shocking, and his supporters should be worried. He was the 29th-rated QB per PFF, and while his rushing stats have long been overvalued – more on that in a bit – his passing deteriorated dramatically. Wilson posted a worse passing grade per PFF (64.5) than Sam Darnold (65.5) did in 2022. Football Outsiders didn’t take a favorable view of his play either, assigning him a -15.2% QB DVOA, tying him for 27th with – deep breath – Zach Wilson. Russell Wilson did have a smattering of blowup games last year, but by and large he not only didn’t help fantasy managers, he actively harmed them. Wilson threw one or fewer touchdown passes in 12 of his 15 games, and his 16 total touchdown passes were the lowest of his career. It was the first time in his nine NFL seasons he’d ever dipped below 20, and that includes his early seasons where the offense revolved around a historic defense and Marshawn Lynch at RB. Additionally, while Wilson has never been prolific in terms of attempts or yardage, efficiency was reliable. His TD rate dipped all the way to 3.3%, the worst mark of his career.

Now, this steep a fall from grace can’t fall solely on Wilson. He’s not particularly old (34), and while he’s dealt with injuries, none have been of the catastrophic sort. Wilson dealt with potentially one of the worst head coaching hires in history in Nathaniel Hackett, who didn’t even last one full season in the role. He also dealt with one of the NFL’s leakies offensive lines. Denver ranked 18th as a pass blocking line per PFF, but 30th by Football Outsiders’ measurements. The sack numbers aren’t pretty, and lend credence to the Football Outsiders assessment. The Broncos posted a 10% adjusted sack rate, the third-worst mark in the NFL, and Wilson set career-highs in sacks (55) and sack yards (368). In fact, Wilson posted more than 100 more sack yards than rushing yards. It was also understated how big a downgrade he’d experience at WR. Jerry Jeudy ranked as PFF’s 20th-best rated receiver, but Courtland Sutton barely cracked the Top 50. This duo was supposed to be comparable to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who ranked 22nd and 23rd, respectively. Those two receivers helped resurrect the career of Geno Smith, and maybe helped Wilson inflate his own stature.

Finally, Wilson was considered a “running” QB once upon a time. His contributions in that aspect have always been a bit overstated, but as he’s gotten older, his rushing has become less and less prolific. These days, there are more running QBs than ever, and Wilson’s rushing is no longer special. He’s topped 376 yards once in the last five seasons; in 2022, five QBs rushed for more than 700 yards, and Justin Fields blew past 1,100 yards on the ground. Seven QBs rushed for 400 or more yards, and all of them scored at least three rushing touchdowns. Wilson hasn’t hit 400 yards in either of the past two seasons, and hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns on the ground since 2014.

All of this paints a grim picture. Wilson can provide rushing numbers, but not enough to compete with the upper-echelon players at his position in that regard. He cannot lean on passing volume like other pocket passers like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, and his efficiency fell off a cliff. Perhaps Denver improves the offensive line, and that can help Wilson regain both his efficiency and his confidence. Swapping out Hackett for Super Bowl champion Sean Payton at head coach cannot be anything but a big plus. It is possible for Wilson to once again be a fantasy relevant QB, but with the proliferation of high-volume rushing QBs, it would be surprising to see him return to a Top 10 level.