Deebo Samuel Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season and Where Should We Draft Him in 2023?

Deebo Samuel was the No. 20 player off the board last season, being drafted as a clear-cut WR1 and someone fantasy managers were building their entire strategy around. While Deebo looked mostly the same on the field, the production was way off the mark, leaving managers confused and frustrated. So what happened? Let’s figure it out.

The most dramatic disparity between Samuel’s dominant 2021 and his underwhelming 2022 was the amount of touchdowns he scored. While touchdowns are a notoriously fickle stat, going from 14 to five this past season was absolutely brutal, especially considering Samuel was – and is – used differently than any other WR in football. But touchdowns cannot solely explain the drop off. In fact, in the 49ers preview I anticipated a touchdown regression and promptly waved off concerns by saying this: “Samuel may not strike paydirt 14 times again, especially if the offseason scuttlebutt about him wanting to run the ball less are true, but he also averaged 18.2 yards per reception and dominated target share. While 2021 might’ve represented a peak for him, Samuel is still a rock solid WR1, even with the quality of targets downgrading due to the change at QB. That might affect some of the 49ers’ players, but not this one. He is this offense.”

That was decidedly untrue in 2022. Samuel lost nearly seven yards off his yards per reception mark, falling to 11.3 from 18.2, saw his average depth of target (ADOT) sliced in half, and his receiving yards per game fall by 40. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk, a big old bust in 2021, play much more like fantasy managers expected the previous year. Aiyuk earned a superior grade per PFF to Deebo, and actually had a higher rushing grade (68.5 vs. 49.3). During the back half of the season, TE George Kittle also saw his touchdown total resemble his talent for once; Kittle exploded for 11 touchdowns in 2022, including seven across the 49ers’ final four games. It was a helpful reminder of what we all know, but tend to ignore when we like certain players – touchdowns are unpredictable.  

But the true death knell for Deebo as the heartbeat of the 49ers’ offense was the in-season trade for RB Christian McCaffery. We all know CMC’s talent, and his arrival took this team from a Super Bowl hopeful to a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC, but it undoubtedly took a toll on Samuel’s consistency. Prior to McCaffery’s arrival, Samuel averaged 4.5 targets, 57.5 receiving yards, 3.8 rushing attempts, 22.7 rushing yards in Weeks 1-6. From Week 7-18, those numbers fell to 4.1 targets, 41 receiving yards, 2.7 rushing attempts and 13.7 rushing yards.

With McCaffery in tow, plus Kittle and Aiyuk playing up to their expectations, the need simply was not there to force feed touches to Samuel. In 2021, what made Deebo special was his ability to be consistently good while also providing massive, week-winning spike games. He had 10 games in 2021 with 60+ receiving yards, five games of 100+ receiving yards, and four games in which he got over 150 yards. Last season he had just one game of 100+ yards, zero 150+-yard games, and only topped 60 yards four times. He was not delivering consistently good games, and the spike weeks were almost non-existent.

So what does this mean for 2023? Deebo Samuel is still an explosive, unique player, and he can always experience another TD spike playing in one of the NFL’s offenses, but if his ADP is near No. 20 again he is probably not going to be a value. Jimmy Garoppolo is not returning to the team, and Tom Brady’s retired, meaning one of Trey Lance or Brock Purdy is going to be the guy under center. Both Lance and Purdy will be coming off fairly devastating injuries, and even at their best, neither figures to support multiple high-level pass-catching contributors. Christian McCaffery will remain the focal point of the attack, and with a full season of CMC, Samuel’s rushing opportunity will – and should be – much more volatile. I’d be happy to roster Samuel, but banking on him as a focal point of your roster is risky, risky business.