Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season and Where Should We Draft Him in 2023?

For our first fantasy autopsy of the offseason, we’ll take a look at one of the most baffling fall-offs of the season, Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, fresh off back-to-back MVP campaigns, put forth one of the more useless seasons in recent memory for a player of his caliber. Did this man really fall off the cliff of relevancy for our game, or is there reason to buy into a 2023 bounce back? Let’s examine.

While Rodgers was coming off some huge seasons, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen a massive dip from him. Prior to his 2022 MVP year, we were in a place similar to this, wondering if his best days were behind him. He threw 26 touchdowns this season, matching his 2019 total and down from 37 in 2021, and 48 in 2020. His 4.8% TD rate was also his lowest since 2019, and his 12 interceptions marked the first time he was in double-digits in that category since 2010, as well as only the 3rd time in 18 seasons he’d thrown 10 or more picks.

Green Bay posted a Top 10 offense per Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA metric, but there is evidence that that wasn’t driven by Rodgers’ play this year. They ranked 14th in Passing DVOA, and Rodgers himself ranked just 14th among PFF’s grades. He was just 21st in QB DVOA (0.3%), and his signature huge plays were absent, as he posted his lowest yards per completion mark (10.6) since 2006. These declining rates and numbers become more discouraging when you learn that Rodgers played behind one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in football; the Packers’ offensive line was ranked third per PFF, and they had Football Outsiders’ sixth-best sack rate. So if he had one of the premier lines protecting him, and the numbers fell off significantly, then that has to mean Rodgers, at age 39, is probably closer to washed than fantasy relevant right?

Well…there’s an elephant in the room we’ve ignored until now. The Packers traded Davante Adams in the offseason. Adams is arguably the best wide receiver in football, but more importantly, he shared a near-telepathic chemistry with Rodgers that made this duo one of the most iconic in NFL history. He wasn’t replaced with anyone established either; Allen Lazard was elevated to the lead role in the early going and led the team with 100 targets. Green Bay’s best receiver on the season was rookie Christian Watson, who finished the year with 611 yards and seven touchdowns but didn’t really emerge until Week 10. Prior to then, Watson’s best game Week 1 in which he caught two passes for 34 yards.

The Packers’ WR corps this year was among the NFL’s worst, with only Watson ranking inside PFF’s Top 24. The next best ranks were Randall Cobb (45th), Lazard (53rd) and fellow rookie Romeo Doubs – a preseason darling – who barely cracked the Top 100. As good as Rodgers can be, this receiving corps is not conducive to success, let alone a high-end fantasy season for a QB who doesn’t provide any production as a runner.

Based on how brutal his pass-catchers were – he didn’t even have quality pass-catching tight ends to account for the drop-off from Adams to this group – I’d be willing to call Rodgers a potential bargain next season. If he returns to Green Bay, he has this offensive line protecting him, plus Watson as a clear-cut WR1 with a year of NFL football under his belt. There are also rumors of him being possibly traded to the Jets, where he’d reunite with former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. That would certainly rectify his pass-catcher issues, since he’d have Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore to throw to, but he’d also potentially downgrade from one of the best pass-blocking units to 2022’s literal worst one. The Jets’ line should improve in 2023 based on better health alone, but they’d need to make a quantum leap because Rodgers isn’t running around anymore.

Ultimately, Rodgers will be low-cost next draft season. Running QBs are more plentiful, and everyone wants them. They’ll go ahead of Rodgers, as will younger pocket passers like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, who are viewed as on the rise. Rodgers might not be at his peak anymore, but giving him a group of receivers that isn’t one of the worst in football should restore him to Top 12 – a.k.a. QB1 -- status.