Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

J.K. Dobbins, RB (ADP: 25): Dobbins is checking in as the RB15 off the board, as one would expect the projected lead back of the NFL’s most run-heavy offense to be. And while Dobbins has shown some extreme talent, he’s being drafted at this ADP based off what we expect to see in 2021, and not as a continuation of what we have already seen. Dobbins’ 2020 output – 134 rushes, 805 yards, nine touchdowns – were excellent for a rookie, but he did not monopolize the backfield like we’d want from surefire RB1s. The backfield was a three-headed monster to begin 2020, and finished as a pretty even split between Dobbins and Gus Edwards. His backfield mate is still very much in the picture, which could lower Dobbins’ ceiling if Dobbins doesn’t have elite touchdown efficiency. Dobbins was also not very involved in the passing game, which could continue to chip away at his ultimate upside.

That’s the glass half empty view. On the other hand, Dobbins graded as one of the NFL’s best pure rushers per PFF, was considered a high-end pass blocker, and posted the NFL’s No. 1 RB DVOA (26.1%). Even with all the limitations, this offense is so geared toward the ground game his floor remains extremely high. He is a solid pick at this ADP.

Lamar Jackson, QB (ADP: 44): Jackson owners who were torpedoed by his early season mediocrity might’ve checked out or traded him before he morphed into his MVP form down the stretch. Jackson, arguably the best rushing QB in NFL history, rushed for 86 yards per game and scored four rushing touchdowns in the final five games of the season. He also shook off his early season passing woes and rediscovered his touchdown efficiency, firing 11 touchdown passes in that span while only averaging 20 pass attempts per game. Jackson has never been, and likely never will be, a prolific passer, but his rushing is comparable to high-end RBs, and his TD% is Russell Wilson-esque. Even last year, he managed to elevate that touchdown rate to 6.9%, which tied him for the third-best mark in football. I don’t typically like drafting QBs early, but you’re now seeing a discount on what was an early second-round ADP just last season. He’s the same player, and his receiving corps has been upgraded a bit. This is a justifiable ADP for him.

Mark Andrews, TE (ADP: 52): Baltimore threw the fewest passes in the NFL last season, so saying Andrews is the No. 1 receiving option is faint praise. It is possible for pass-catchers to thrive in low volume offenses, however, and Andrews has precisely the tools necessary. He’s averaged nearly nine yards per target in his three NFL seasons and 13.5 yards per reception for his career. Despite failing to crack 100 targets in a season, Andrews has scored 17 touchdowns in the past two years, and consistently catches 65% of his passes. He won’t be able to crack the super elite class of Travis Kelce because the passing volume is flat out too low, but he’s Jackson’s first look in the red zone, and Jackson is one of the most efficient touchdown throwers in football. I’d rather snag Andrews at this ADP than burn a first on Kelce, or a second on Darren Waller/George Kittle.

**Gus Edwards, RB (ADP: 108): Remember those glowing PFF grades for Dobbins? Edwards was right there with him. Gus Edwards actually posted a better rushing grade than Dobbins, led all Ravens RBs in carries (144) in 2020, and has averaged more than five yards per carry for his career. None of this is a slight to Dobbins in the least, it’s merely me making the case that this ADP is making Edwards a major bargain. This offense runs so much it can easily support two fantasy-relevant RBs, and both backs should benefit from Mark Ingram’s vacated 72 attempts. If the Ravens make good on offseason promises to involve Dobbins more in the passing game, that could open up a scenario where Edwards “starts,” or handles the majority of early down work for this team. Don’t forget, while Dobbins led all RBs in RB DVOA, Edwards checked in at No. 7 (17.5%). He will absolutely be involved, he will score TDs, and if Dobbins gets hurt, he’s a possible league winner.

Marquise Brown, WR (ADP: 129): Brown’s success rises and falls with Lamar Jackson. He finished last season with  numbers that look okay – 58 receptions, 769 yards, eight touchdowns – but his path to those numbers was treacherous. Brown scored six of his eight touchdowns in the final six games of the season; recall Jackson threw 11 touchdowns in the Ravens’ final five games. Prior to that stretch, Brown posted fewer than 50 yards five times, and failed to score a touchdown in four of those games. He even posted a doughnut in Week 11 vs. Tennessee. Due to his speed, Brown is viewed as a pure field stretcher, but he actually saw six or more targets 12 times last year. He’s just not an efficient receiving option, and a lot of that is his QB. He’s not a PPR beast, and he may actually lose target share with the additions of Sammy Watkins and rookie Rashod Bateman, so if you want to bank on TD efficiency from a 5’9, 170-lb. receiver feel free. I’m probably  looking elsewhere.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Rashod Bateman, WR (ADP: 169): Bateman was drafted in Round 1 to be the possession receiver Brown can’t, but a camp injury has put his readiness for the season in doubt. Even before the injury, I wouldn’t have bet big on Bateman being a big impact for fantasy teams, for the volume deficiencies discussed above. If he gets right, he has a path to being the WR1 for the Ravens, but that makes him at best the No. 2 pass-catcher behind Andrews, and Brown is still a more explosive player. There are better passing offenses to gamble on.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Sammy Watkins, WR (ADP: 221): Watkins is somewhat interesting. He has as good a chance as Bateman to be that second pass-catcher for Jackson, and we have seen Watkins be a big time producer. It was just six years ago. Watkins has lived off his draft pedigree for years, and despite playing with Patrick Mahomes for the past three seasons, Watkins has only  managed eight touchdowns. That’s as many as Brown scored by himself in a down year for Jackson. Even if Bateman misses real time, I don’t think Watkins is anything more than a desperation fill in.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 113)

The Ravens D/ST is a strong unit, but they play in a division with some heavy hitters. They are a clear weekly D/ST start, but I am not expecting a massively impactful season from them.