Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Stefon Diggs, WR (ADP: 14): Diggs was a league winner last season, heading from a shared lead role in Minnesota to be the alpha for the Bills. While many entered the season with doubts about Diggs’ ability to be a top dog, and Josh Allen’s ceiling as a passer, the Bills shut everyone up emphatically. Diggs put up 127 receptions, 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns while drawing 166 targets in one of the NFL’s most pass-happy offenses. He earned the third-highest grade from PFF among all WRs, and the second-highest receiving grade behind Davante Adams. Diggs is now a superstar, a locked in WR1, and makes sense to me as the WR3 off the board, which is his current mark.
Josh Allen, QB (ADP: 35): Allen might be in for some regression. While I don’t doubt his status as an elite all-around QB, he made dramatic leaps forward in every way as a passer; he raised his completion percentage by 11 points after not surpassing 60% in his first two seasons, eclipsed 4,500 passing yards after barely cracking 3,000 in 2019, and upped his passing TDs by 17. It was the breakout to end all breakouts, and it screams regression. The thing is, even if he does fall back some, Allen will continue to deliver value because of his rushing. He’s not flashy like Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson, but he is the Bills’ goal line back. He rushed for eight touchdowns last season, and has been at eight or more in all three of his pro campaigns. The Bills made zero meaningful changes to their backfield, so there’s no reason that won’t continue. With that baseline, and the upside he showed with his arm, even if he falls off a bit there’s no reason not to treat him like a Top 3 QB.
Zack Moss, RB (ADP: 93): Moss, a third round rookie last year, didn’t establish himself as a lead dog. He was fine, rushing 112 times for 481 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games, but it wasn’t enough to clearly put him in pole position for leading the backfield in 2021. The good news is he showed some receiving chops – 14 receptions, 95 yards, one touchdown – and he graded out better as a receiver and much better as a pass blocker than Devin Singletary. If he can protect Allen better, and also catch the ball just as well, Moss can start assuming a greater percentage of the snaps. He’s also a bigger bodied back, so he is the favorite for goal line rushes among the two, although Allen’s preeminence there does cap the ceiling. Moss isn’t a breakout candidate for me, but I do believe he can provide valuable RB depth.
Devin Singletary, RB (ADP: 107): Singletary has been disappointing, failing to capitalize on his 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie in 2020 and allowing Moss to establish himself. Singletary is an efficient rusher, but he lacks the snap percentage and touchdown capability necessary to provide real value as the lower end of a time share. Singletary did see 50 targets in 2020, but as the PFF grades showed, Moss was actually the Bills’ better bet on passing downs. Should he lose that work too, Singletary becomes waiver wire fodder. He shouldn’t be written off completely, and becomes a serviceable RB2 if Moss goes down, but I’m not eager to draft him at this ADP. There are very high-upside WRs going in this range I’d rather snap up.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Cole Beasley, WR (ADP: 139): Beasley is one of the better slot receivers in football, and in this offense he had a career year in 2020 with 82 receptions and 967 yards, both career highs, as well as four touchdowns. It was the second year in a row Beasley flirted with 110 targets, and there’s no reason to think Buffalo will move away from what is working. Beasley’s ceiling is what we saw last year, so he looks like a very useful depth option in half-PPR and full-PPR formats. Hoping for anything more though is silly.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR (ADP: 185): Sanders is 34 now, and while he can still help NFL teams, his days of being a weekly fantasy starter are behind him. Sanders couldn’t really capitalize last season on Michael Thomas’ absence, finishing with 61 receptions, 726 yards and five touchdowns as the Saints’ de facto WR1 for a chunk of the season. Those numbers are fine, but won’t really move the needle for your squad, and he’s not going to see his target share increase on this team. Bills fans will love Sanders, but fantasy owners? Not so much.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Gabriel Davis, WR (ADP: 223): Davis, an electric second-year receiver, was someone I expected to hype up as a Year 2 breakout once John Brown was out of the picture. Davis flashed a bunch, scoring seven touchdowns on just 35 receptions, and averaging 17.1 yards per catch. Davis is someone I’d be very excited about if I could count on increased volume, but it won’t be easy here. Diggs monopolizes target share, and Beasley is Allen’s safety valve. He’s also competing with Sanders, an unexciting name at this point in his career, but an effective veteran nonetheless. Sadly, I think Davis will be like he was last year. By that, he’s a high upside dart throw, but you will not be able to confidently start him ever.
Dawson Knox, TE (ADP: 248): Knox really could break out in 2021. He’s entering his third season, is the clear lead TE for this team, and has averaged 13 yards per reception in his career, while scoring five touchdowns. The key is volume. Will Allen target Knox enough for him to become fantasy relevant? I’d bet no, because of the superior WR talent present, but he’s a player to pick up on waivers if he pops early, because the Bills offense is one of the NFL’s best.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 147)
The Bills D/ST finished Top 10 in Weighted DVOA last year, but was more middle of the pack in Run DVOA and Pass DVOA, plus their offense leads to high-scoring game scripts. While the idea of six games vs. AFC East offenses is enticing, I think the Bills D/ST is going to be fairly pedestrian. Likely worth drafting, but their D/ST8 status right now feels like a ceiling.