Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Calvin Ridley, WR (ADP: 21): Ridley has been a strong fantasy option for three straight seasons, and now he looks primed to cement himself as elite. Ridley broke out in full in 2020, catching 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns and proving fully capable of thriving as the alpha while Julio Jones missed time. His performance left the Falcons feeling confident enough in him to trade away Jones, and hand over the offense to him. As the leading man, Ridley has WR1 overall upside. He already saw 143 targets last season, and Jones is vacating 68 targets that he accumulated in nine games. In fact, it’s no stretch to think Ridley might lead the NFL in targets, which is a scary thought with his touchdown efficiency. He’s currently being drafted as the WR5, and he could potentially return value on that.

Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP: 48): Pitts is a special prospect, and that’s what makes this ADP difficult. He’s being drafted as the TE4, exactly where I’ve ranked him, but this ADP means he would have to surpass some of the greatest rookie TE seasons ever by a lot to justify it. It’s possible in theory. Russell Gage was second on the team last year in targets with 109, but that was with Jones mixing in. Pitts is now the obvious No. 2 pass catcher on a team that threw the fourth-most pass attempts in the league last year. He should see well over 100 targets, and for a guy with his skills that could lead to damage. Evan Engram’s rookie season is a good baseline for what an elite rookie TE season looks like; Engram saw 115 targets, and put up 64 receptions, 722 yards and six touchdowns. Pitts needs to be better than that to make this ADP worth it, because he’s going ahead of some rock star WRs (Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, to name a few).

At the same time, Pitts is considered maybe the greatest TE prospect ever, and he put up 770 yards and 12 touchdowns last year for the Gators. Ultimately, I wouldn’t kill anyone for taking a stab on Pitts here. I think justification for the ADP is possible. But, I’m not the one who will be drafting him inside the Top 50. History is very much not on Pitts’ side here, so I’d rather pass at No. 47 and hope he falls another round or so.

Mike Davis, RB (ADP: 57): Davis is about as unexciting as a veteran RB pick can get. He performed nicely in the absence of Christian McCaffery last season, surprising a lot of people with his dual threat ability. He finished the season with 59 receptions, 373 yards and two receiving touchdowns, as well as 642 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. While many thought Atlanta might spring for a RB in the draft, or hunt some more veteran competition in free agency, Davis appears set as the guy. His ADP has risen based on this perceived security, but it feels like a trap.

While Davis was a feel-good fantasy story, he wore down as the year pressed on. From Week 9-16, Davis failed to rush for 65 yards even one time, averaged just 41.7 yards on the ground, and scored four times in seven games. He became touchdown-dependent, and his receiving dropped off as well. Drafting Davis is a bet on volume and touchdowns, and I’m not convinced he will see sufficient volume, nor will he score a ton of TDs. Yes, he might be the workhorse here, but this team is going to have some of the lowest rushing volume in the NFL, and they’ll likely be throwing a bunch in the red zone. I think Davis could be useful, but I’d like it a lot more if his ADP was 20 picks later than it is.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Matt Ryan, QB (ADP: 131): Ryan is always a sure bet for volume and yardage. He’s attempted at least 600 passes in seven of the last nine seasons, and thrown for 4,000+ yards for 10 years running. Ryan’s touchdown efficiency is much less stable, however, and these days touchdown efficiency is paramount to any QB who isn’t going to run, which Ryan absolutely won’t. Julio Jones was never a TD maven, but he was integral to this passing offense for years, and while I love Ridley, and am drooling about Pitts’ potential, Jones’ departure plus a new offense means Ryan might have an adjustment period. He’ll be a strong play in plus matchups, but if you’re trying to draft your season-long QB, you can do better than Ryan in 2021.

Russell Gage, WR (ADP: 161): All this talk of passing volume, and Julio Jones leaving, must make me giddy about Gage right? Not really. Jones missed seven games last year, and Gage was second on the team in targets, and still only had 72 receptions for 786 yards and four touchdowns. Gage is a fine NFL pass-catcher, but he’s assuming the Mohamed Sanu role in this offense, which is shorthand for not very fantasy relevant. Even at this low ADP, I am not very interested.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Hayden Hurst, TE (ADP: 235): Hurst was a big target of mine last season and he didn’t really hit the mark. Yeah, 56 receptions, 571 yards and six TDs was fine for TE, especially last year, but it wasn’t any fun having him. Now he’s got to deal with a generational TE prospect on his team, and I’m not trying to run this guy out there on my fantasy team. There’s definitely a chance for value though if Pitts gets hurt.

Qadree Ollison, RB (ADP: 278): Ollison looks like the handcuff to have for this team in the wake of the team releasing undrafted free agent Javian Hawkins, but there’s no way to know for sure if he can be fantasy-relevant or not. Ollison has 23 career carries in two seasons, so it doesn’t appear Atlanta has too much faith in him. Opportunity might eventually present itself, but I don’t see any value in drafting him.

D’Onta Foreman, RB (ADP: 333): Foreman was recently signed by the Falcons, rejoining Arthur Smith, who was his offensive coordinator last season in Tennessee. Foreman did next to nothing last year, but that’s to be expected when you’re backing up Derrick Henry. Foreman hasn’t flashed since his rookie year in 2017, and we really haven’t seen any success stories when the setback was a torn Achilles, but there’s no obvious backup. If Foreman has anything left in the tank, he could be the right handcuff to Davis. Whether it’s Foreman or Ollison, I do believe there’s value down the line in this backfield behind Mike Davis. Just wait for the value to reveal itself rather than potentially wasting a draft pick.  

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 362)

Nope.