Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 6): It takes a special kind of beast to support a Top 10 ADP as a running back without being a dominant pass-catcher. Nick Chubb is one such beast. Chubb graded as PFF’s No. 4 RB last season, racking up more than 1,000 rushing yards in just 12 games, and finishing with 12 touchdowns despite sharing significant work, and goal line opportunities, with another All-Pro caliber RB. Some will point to Kareem Hunt’s presence on this team as a reason to fade Chubb at an ADP this high. It’s hogwash. Hunt can be pesky, and he will be on the field for most passing downs, but Cleveland’s offense is so run-dominant none of that will matter. All of these factors were present in 2020, and Chubb still averaged 16 attempts and 88.6 yards per game. You should have zero qualms pulling the trigger here on Chubb.
Kareem Hunt, RB (ADP: 50): Hunt, while talented, is a bit trickier. He was involved last season, but it was less of a two-headed monster than Hunt owners hoped, strictly because of Chubb’s dominance. Hunt’s passing downs role is clear, and at times he seemed to be the Browns preferred option on the goal line. Despite seeing four fewer rushing attempts per game, Hunt still finished with 11 touchdowns, just one shy of Chubb. The difference is he scored six times on the ground, and five times though the air. Hunt can provide value on this ADP if he’s hyper-efficient with touchdowns, but he’s not the alpha of this backfield unless Chubb gets hurt. That’s not quite the role I want from a RB I’m taking in the Top 50, so unless the price drops a bit I’m unlikely to have many Hunt shares this season.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR (ADP: 69): Beckham is quite some time away from his days as a dominant WR, even though his name value is still inflating his ADP. Beckham, when healthy, still shows flashes of what made him arguably the best WR in football from 2014-2016, but he hasn’t played a full season in four years, or averaged 65 yards per game since joining the Browns. Beckham’s talent is still there, but you’re a fool at this point to draft him with the intent of relying on him, which you would be at this ADP. His injury risk must be built in after four years of being banged up, and even when healthy he’s mired in an offense that ran the ball nearly 500 times in 2020, fourth-most in the NFL. Beckham might be serviceable as a WR2 on a RB-rich roster because of his blowup potential, but his Eli Manning target share is gone and not returning unless he finds himself on a new team.
Jarvis Landry, WR (ADP: 104): Landry, Beckham’s best friend, is going much later than OBJ and is therefore a far better value. 2021 was a down year for Landry, as he drew a career-low 101 targets and only scored three touchdowns, but the latter stat looks due for positive regression. Landry had twice as many TDs in 2019, and has scored as many as nine in his career. There’s no doubt that when Beckham is on the field he eats into Landry’s target share with vigor, but Beckham rarely lasts full seasons, while Landry has settled in with a floor of 80 receptions annually. The ship has sailed on Landry evolving into a fantasy WR1, but he’s a rock solid WR3 with definite WR2 upside, and he can be had as the 41st WR off the board. Give me Landry at this ADP all day over Beckham and his upside.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 136): Mayfield’s likeliest outcome is a game manager who can pop in plus matchups. His rookie year showed more promise than that, but after a high-turnover sophomore campaign, the team is clearly playing it safe and relying on their dominant rushing game and frightening defense. There is a path for Mayfield to be a sneaky effective fantasy QB though – TD efficiency. During a four-week stretch from Weeks 12-15, Mayfield averaged 35.3 attempts per game and completed 70.3% of them, striking for 10 touchdowns and one pick while averaging 308 yards. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt in these games, as opposed to his 7.3 mark for the whole season, and that number could persist with a healthy Beckham back. I wouldn’t bank on Mayfield being a prolific passer under this regime, but there’s a chance for Russell Wilson-esque TD percentages in the red zone, especially with Beckham back and defenses loading up against the run.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Austin Hooper, TE (ADP: 238): Hooper was a pretty big flop as a Cleveland Brown, at least fantasy-wise. He battled some injuries, but ultimately his low output – 46 receptions, 435 yards, four touchdowns – is a feature of this offense rather than a bug. Hooper is fighting for a very limited slice of attention in the passing game, and he’s competing with diva WRs who demand the rock, and rightfully so. Hooper simply doesn’t have enough opportunity in this offense to be relevant, nor is he efficient enough to thrive on low volume. He’s just a streaming play, and even there he has stiff competition at his own position.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR (ADP: 260): Peoples-Jones is probably the guy to target if you insist on a Browns lottery ticket. He has major speed and flashed deep ball ability last season, posting 304 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 21.7 yards per reception. His two scores came from 24 and 75 yards out, so if Cleveland wants to spread the field more, and I’m not sure why they’d stray from what works, Peoples-Jones seems like a better bet to see the field than anyone else, including Schwartz.
David Njoku, TE (ADP: 326): Njoku is entering Year 5 of his career, so the sun is unfortunately setting on the uber-athletic TE’s breakout potential. He showed he’s dangerous in the red zone in his first two seasons, notching four touchdowns in both, but since then he’s been a frequent target of the injury bug, and now he’s got to deal with Hooper at his own position. Njoku might have a better chance to breakout elsewhere, but as it stands he’s just going to attract too few targets to be trustworthy.
Rashard Higgins, WR (ADP: 350): Higgins had a massive opportunity with Beckham missing most of the year, but he was unable to break out. That’s not all his fault, as this is an offense that’s built entirely on running it down opponents’ throats, but he comes into this year once again behind Beckham, and with very little change overall even if Beckham gets hurt again. Pass.
Anthony Schwartz, WR (ADP: 435): Schwartz is a burner out of Auburn whom the Browns pounced on in the third round of the 2021 draft. While the draft capital suggests they have plans for him, it’s very difficult to envision him taking any targets from Beckham or Landry, or even being on the field very much. I’ll pass, and I’m not even that interested in deep keeper or dynasty formats. College production isn’t everything, but he never surpassed 55 receptions or 640 yards.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 166)
The Browns D/ST is just ninth off the board, despite a genuinely staggering collection of talent in the front seven. Myles Garrett alone is worth a draft pick, and now with Jadeveon Clowney in the mix they’ll rack up sacks on sacks on sacks. They do have some brutal offenses within the division, but the turnovers generated by the big uglies up front make them worthwhile against any opponent.