Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Joe Mixon, RB (ADP: 19): I began this offseason with some doubts about Mixon, which I covered here, but as time has gone on I find myself warming to the idea of Mixon even at this ADP. As I have previously stated, Mixon did not grade well on PFF in his six games, and he had subpar production before getting hurt that was inflated by a single game in which he ran wild for 151 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Jaguars. But, it can’t all be laid at Mixon’s feet. His offensive line ranked 31st in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards and they were fifth-worst in RB Yards. Prior to last season’s dud, Mixon had topped 1,100 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons, and 1,400 yards from scrimmage with nine and eight touchdowns, respectively. He was over 16 carries per game in those seasons, and that volume had actually increased to 19.8 attempts last year before he went down. Mixon is a true workhorse back in a league where that’s increasingly rare, and that alone makes him a commodity. He could potentially disappoint at this ADP, but I underestimated early on how high his floor is.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR (ADP: 67): Chase was the first WR drafted this season, and as this ADP indicates, people are hyped up. The talent is insane, and Chase is reunited with his college QB, with whom they won a National Championship while setting collegiate records, but the brakes may need to be pumped slightly. His upside is undeniable, and he had the college production; in 2019, he caught 84 passes for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns. 20!!! But context is important too; as mentioned earlier, that LSU offense was like an arcade game, and Chase was surrounded in that offense by other monstrous weapons like Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Terrace Marshall Jr. Chase also hasn’t played football in a year because he opted out of the 2020 season.

Chase also is entering an offense that should be able to support multiple pass-catchers, but he will be battling for target share. Tyler Boyd is an established target hound for the Bengals, and Tee Higgins had his own breakout of sorts as a rookie. Chase is similar to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb last year, in that we’ll visibly see the potential, but the full breakout may have to wait due to his situation. Because of that, there are other WRs going in this range that I feel more confident projecting, and therefore I am out on this ADP in redraft.

**Tee Higgins, WR (ADP: 71): Higgins, going four picks later, is in a similar boat to Chase. He blew up last season, piling up 908 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, and placing himself firmly into the second-year breakout category. Higgins very well may break out, but with Chase around, I don’t see him as getting the type of target share needed to have a Justin Jefferson-type campaign. Higgins, to me, has high-end WR2 upside this year though, and in redraft leagues I think I prefer him to Chase at their ADPs.

Tyler Boyd, WR (ADP: 93): Boyd is yet another toy in this offense for Joe Burrow to play with. His upside is very much capped now that Chase is around to steal some of his targets, because Boyd needs high volume to be fantasy relevant. Boyd will still matter, because he’s one of the best slot receivers in the NFL today, but 2020 saw Boyd receive his fewest targets, yards and touchdowns in the last three seasons, and that clearly had a lot to do with Higgins’ arrival. With Chase in the mix too, Boyd simply won’t be peppered with as many looks, and will need to have touchdown efficiency we haven’t seen from him in any of his five seasons.  I don’t like this ADP at all.

**Joe Burrow, QB (ADP: 106): Burrow is currently the QB13, which is perfect if you’re targeting value at the position. If you’re the type of player who hates burning early picks on the QB elites, Burrow at this point in drafts is amazing. Yeah, he’s coming off a major knee injury, but his production in 10 games as a rookie should have you drooling. He was one of only three QBs last year to average 40 passing attempts per game, and he averaged 268.8 yards while tossing 13 touchdowns vs. only five interceptions. Cincinnati’s defense should be awful again, so expect Burrow to be throwing just as much in 2021. But where Burrow really surprised is in the running game. He’s no Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson who have running plays designed for them, but Burrow wasn’t afraid to jet, taking off 3.7 times per game and scoring three rushing TDs. Maybe that’s scaled back after the knee injury, but if he keeps running at that rate and puts up the same passing numbers as last year, he’ll easily be a Top 10 QB and provide big value on his ADP.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Samaje Perine, RB (ADP: 280): Perine is the likely handcuff for Mixon, and while he’s uninspiring, he could see a lot of volume if Mixon went down. He can be safely left on waivers, though, because nobody will rush to add him.

Pooka Williams, RB (ADP: 294): Williams is being drafted as the handcuff to Mixon, and while his dual-threat ability makes that make some sense, his size is a red flag. Small backs can certainly succeed in the NFL, and be fantasy relevant, but it’s rarely on the strength of volume. For a Cincy back to thrive, volume is crucial, because this offense will be throwing more than anything because of their terrible defense. Should Mixon get hurt, Williams is going to have to share the rushing duties, so it’s a major time share at best. Better to invest a late pick on someone with more of a path to playing time.

Drew Sample, TE (ADP: 592): The receiving options in Cincinnati are pretty clear-cut, but as the starting TE, Sample will have at least a sliver of the offensive pie. If he does okay in the early going, he might have value some weeks as a streamer, but he’s not a breakout candidate for me.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: N/A)

Literally, nobody’s drafting this D/ST.