Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Preview 2021
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Ezekiel Elliott, RB (ADP: 5): Elliott was a big disappointment to fantasy owners last year who suffered through his first ever sub-1,000 rushing yard season, in which he scored the fewest total touchdowns of his career. He has legitimate excuses; his All-Pro QB went down early in the season, and injuries all around the roster caused his supporting cast to crumble. But that doesn’t fully account for him being graded as PFF’s 49th-best RB last season, or his negative RB DVOA. Elliott didn’t look like himself at times, and he lost more work to backup Tony Pollard than anyone could’ve predicted. Still, fantasy owners are giving him a mulligan and banking on the return of Prescott, and a return to health for several offensive linemen, to restore this offense to its peak.
It’s not a bad bet. Prior to 2020, Elliott had never finished a season with fewer than 1,200 yards from scrimmage or fewer than nine touchdowns. And while Elliott’s 95-target 2018 is unlikely to be repeated, he seems to be slotting in comfortably with 70ish targets per season these days, and those are higher value targets coming from Prescott. No. 5 may be slightly higher than where I’d ideally draft Zeke in 2021, but it’s a perfectly safe, fine ADP. Elliott should return Round 1 value.
CeeDee Lamb, WR (ADP: 37): The hype for Lamb has now driven his ADP to the top of the Cowboys’ WR group, past Amari Cooper. There’s reason to love Lamb. He’s a high first round pick, he has incredible talent and second-year WRs are all the rage these days. He is in what figures to be one of the NFL’s highest scoring offenses, has one of the most prolific QBs in the game throwing to him, and he has enough surrounding skill players that defenses cannot specifically game plan to stop him. But with all that said, Lamb didn’t exactly perform at a level that dictates this ADP.
He finished the 2020 season with 111 targets (granted, without Prescott for most of the season), 74 receptions, 935 yards and five touchdowns. Those are fantastic rookie numbers, but that target share isn’t likely to skyrocket, because Cooper and Michael Gallup are both high-end pass-catchers who demand targets. Zeke is a workhorse, and TE Blake Jarwin was a preseason sleeper in 2020 before he went down to injury. Lamb has a ton of competition, so without elite target share, he will need to score a ton of touchdowns to be a value at this draft slot. Lamb also played largely out of the slot, which isn’t typically a position that breeds big TD numbers. It’s possible Dallas moves him around more in an effort to focus on getting him the ball, but Cooper and Gallup are both strong outside receivers. Lamb will undoubtedly be a useful fantasy receiver but at this ADP I don’t know that anyone’s getting a value.
Amari Cooper, WR (ADP: 43): Cooper is a value in comparison to Lamb, in my opinion, even if he’s only going five picks later. Cooper feels old hat because he’s entering his seventh season, but he’s only 27 years old. While we dream on Lamb, Cooper has steadily delivered 1,000-yard seasons in every year of his career besides 2017, in which he missed time. Cooper is the best bet to lead this offense in targets, managed 92 receptions in 2020 despite some of the NFL’s worst QB play, and will post year-end WR1 numbers even if he arrives at them inconsistently. It may seem like Cooper is the floor play and Lamb is shooting for the moon, but when you look at how this offense operates, they’re likely to be similar when the season is done. But Cooper is the one you can definitely count on. Also, not that PFF is gospel, but Cooper did grade 22 spots better than Lamb last year with the same QBs.
Dak Prescott, QB (ADP: 54): Prescott made the leap from nice value QB to absolute fantasy superstar in 2019 when he ripped off a 4,900-yard season with 30 touchdowns. Prescott was on his way to obliterating that season last year before he broke his leg and his season was over. Prior to one of the uglier leg snaps in recent memory, Prescott was averaging 371.2 yards per game and had thrown for nearly 2,000 yards in fewer than five full games. He had nine touchdowns against four interceptions, and was attempting a league-best 44.4 attempts per game.
While he does not have Patrick Mahomes’ ability as a passer, nor Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray’s explosiveness as a rusher, his blend of volume passing and rushing opportunity makes him a contender to finish as the QB1. This offense revolves around Dak, and while Zeke will be a workhorse as usual, Dallas’ defense is still going to be terrible, meaning the game scripts will perpetually be in Prescott’s favor. He has arguably the best receiving corps in football, and a RB that will keep defenses honest. On the ground, the Cowboys aren’t necessarily designing runs for him like the Bills do for Josh Allen, but he has averaged 3.3 or more rushing attempts per game for each of his five NFL seasons, and scored six rushing touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. Last year he was at three rushing scores in five games. Prescott isn’t necessarily a “bargain,” because QBs can be found so late, but I love his price much more than Mahomes (No. 19) or Josh Allen (No. 32) when he can put up numbers just as big.
Tony Pollard, RB (ADP: 117): Pollard is a different kind of back from Elliott, and while his ADP reflects one of the premier handcuffs in football, I’m not quite as bullish on his upside. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season, finishing with 628 yards from scrimmage and five scores. While Pollard stole some work from Elliott at times when Zeke had fumbling issues, and was more involved than expected on passing downs, Pollard still earned subpar marks as a receiver (56.9) and pass blocker (54.6). In fact, he graded 10 points worse than Zeke as a pass blocker, which will have implications with Prescott needing to be protected at all costs. It makes some sense to roster him as a Zeke owner, but anyone drafting Pollard with the idea that he’ll have standalone value is making a mistake, and wasting a roster spot. Guys like Laviska Shenault and Jaylen Waddle are going immediately after Pollard, and have a much higher probability of making you better.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Michael Gallup, WR (ADP: 124): Gallup seems to be the Cowboy whose reputation suffered the most from Dallas’ 2020 letdown, and I am not sure it was warranted. I covered Gallup’s upside here, but it boils down to Gallup being at his best as a downfield threat, which requires good QB play. Gallup did not have that for most of last season, and he suffered. Through five weeks (a.k.a. games with Dak) Gallup was on pace for 54 receptions, 1,114 yards and three touchdowns. An 1,100-yard receiver at this point in the draft is a steal, and the three touchdown prediction is fickle AF. Touchdowns are far from a sticky stat, and his efficiency makes him useful no matter what. Volume is never going to be Gallup’s bag in this offense, but he could potentially have an A.J. Brown-esque role in this offense, with the upside of a massive target share increase if Lamb or Cooper got hurt. Gallup is probably the best pure value of any Cowboy for fantasy.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Blake Jarwin, TE (ADP: 219): Jarwin had a bunch of hype entering last season before going down to a season-ending injury before Week 1. While we’ve never seen Jarwin as the TE1 for this team, in a limited role he’s proven to be someone the Cowboys can target for fairly big plays (career 11.6 yards per reception), and he scored three touchdowns in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019. His upside is limited by the amount of talent in this offense; Prescott can feed a lot of mouths, but not all of them. We might expect him to build on Dalton Schultz’s 63 receptions, 615 yards and four touchdowns, but based on his role, I’d expect him to be around those numbers at best. If we are expecting Lamb to improve, and Gallup to bounce back, that’s fewer TE targets, not to mention Schultz is still around. He could pop, but it won’t be for any of my teams.
Dalton Schultz, TE (ADP: 293): Speaking of Schultz, he’s off people’s minds completely with Jarwin back. That’s fair, but at the same time, he was pretty damn good. I expect both Schultz and Jarwin to flash in 2021, essentially killing the value for both of them.
Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 222)
The Cowboys D/ST is somehow 15th off the board. Maybe it’s because they’re in a division with three turnover-prone QBs, but it’s hard to imagine them keeping many offenses off the board. Perhaps the NFC East QBs will supply them some points, but they’ll be unplayable against good offenses, and still vulnerable to bad ones. Maybe they can be streamed, but even then I’d feel queasy.