Better Than You Think: Gus Edwards Is Not Just a Handcuff

A hallmark of draft season is getting excited about young, up-and-coming running backs who closed the previous season in impressive fashion. That describes J.K. Dobbins, a second-round pick out of Ohio State last season who earned a big role in the Ravens backfield down the stretch, and was a main reason they parted ways with veteran Mark Ingram. Many are now projecting the full season breakout this year, and viewing Gus Edwards as a possible thorn in his side. That description is probably selling Edwards short.

There’s no doubt Dobbins was electric in 2020, but it shouldn’t be ignored that Edwards averaged five yards per carry on 144 rushing attempts, 10 more than Dobbins received. Edwards earned an 85.5 grade from PFF, the fifth-best grade in the NFL behind Derrick Henry, Damien Harris, Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. Good company. Edwards also finished inside the Top 10 in RB DVOA (17.5%).

There is no doubt that both Dobbins and Edwards are aided by QB Lamar Jackson, the best rushing QB in the league. Jackson led the team in rushing attempts (159), and opens up opportunities for his rushers. Both Edwards and Dobbins can expect a slight uptick in their workload with Ingram gone, vacating 72 attempts, but Edwards very well could be the rusher to bank on to lead the Ravens in rushing TDs in 2021. Edwards was second in the NFL in Success Rate (63%), a metric that “represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays.”

It’s worth noting that Dobbins ranked fourth in this metric at 59%, but Edwards’ performance warrants a healthy workload, even if it decreases Dobbins’ playing time. Edwards’ “Effective Yardage” came in at 871, 143 more than his 723 actual yards. Dobbins was only +1 in the Effective Yardage figure.

The area where Dobbins reigns most supreme is passing downs. Dobbins graded as a significantly better pass blocker, and Edwards caught just nine passes in 2020, on 13 targets. Edwards has never been involved in the passing game, and likely won’t be in 2021. That work will belong to Dobbins, and so Dobbins deserves to be drafted higher than Edwards. But treating Edwards as a Dobbins handcuff is a big mistake. There is major value to be had here, as he will be a significant part of this offense, which attempted the fewest passes in the NFL last season. They threw 34 fewer passes than the Patriots, who spent the season toggling between Cam Newton, who might as well have been throwing lefty for most of the season, Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer. Edwards will be a factor for fantasy teams all year long, and has RB1 upside in the event of a Dobbins injury.