Better Than You Think: Mo Alie-Cox Is A Late Sleeper With Major Upside

As we continue looking at players who are much better than their stats and perception might indicate, and who might be primed for better-than-expected fantasy finishes, let’s look at tight end. It’s a maligned fantasy position with a very small tier of elite options. Once you’re past Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle, you’re throwing a guy in there and praying. Finding a reliable option without paying up is tough, so it can make sense to just “punt” in terms of draft capital, and take a flier super late. That’s where you’ll be able to find Mo Alie-Cox of the Colts this year, and you may be happy if you go this route.

Let’s start with the basics. Cox is a behemoth, listed at 6’5, 267 lbs. His stats are extremely underwhelming – 31 receptions, 394 yards, two touchdowns – but there are mitigating factors we’ll get into. On the positive side, he averaged a healthy 12.7 yards per reception, slightly below the likes of more established playmakers like Kelce, Kittle and Mike Gesicki. Despite being a massive human being, he’s no plodder; he has twice averaged more than 10 yards per target, and two of his four touchdowns have come from more than 10 yards out. Cox would probably have been used more consistently if not for the Colts rostering three TEs last season, and attempting to force feed looks to Trey Burton, who is gone now. Burton led the position in targets (47), while Cox out-targeted Jack Doyle by six despite Doyle entering 2020 with mild sleeper buzz. It’s also worth  noting this offense is going to change significantly with Carson Wentz at QB replacing Philip Rivers. Wentz made a star out of TE Zach Ertz in Philadelphia; in fact, until last season, Ertz was regularly in the tier I mentioned at the top. With Rivers at the helm, RB Nyheim Hines finished the year with 76 targets, the second-most on the roster. Wentz is much more focused on driving the ball downfield, and he certainly loves utilizing his tight ends. The TE position will be more valuable for the Colts this season, and Burton is not there to compete.

Doyle is known as a pass-catching TE, but this is where looking under the hood reveals more reason to hope that Cox will be featured. Per PFF, Cox graded out as the fifth-best TE in football. He received the seventh-highest receiving grade (79), the second-highest pass-blocking grade (81.8) and a respectable 69.8 run blocking grade. I bring up his PFF blocking grades in a fantasy article not because that scores points for our teams, but because it means he should be on the field for the majority of the Colts’ snaps. It is worth mentioning that Doyle also graded well in these categories, but he was behind Cox in all but the run blocking metric, and he was 10 spots behind Cox in TE DVOA.

Maybe the Colts decide to run two-TE at a high rate. Wentz has supported two TEs in the past (Ertz and Dallas Goedert), and if there’s enough passing volume perhaps both will be playable. But if forced to pick one, I’ll go with the massive, athletic freak who grades out well in all aspects of the position. Especially when the top receiving options are aging T.Y. Hilton, a second-year man in Michael Pittman, and a reserve RB.