Better Than You Think: Derek Carr Was Shockingly Competent In 2020
Looks can be deceiving. Some players don’t put up quite the numbers that we want as fantasy owners, and get buried under poor perception. But the reality may be that these perceptions and underwhelming numbers are masking high-level performance on the field. Derek Carr is one of these players.
Carr finished 2020 with 4,103 yards, 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions to go along with 140 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Pedestrian numbers for sure, and nothing to be excited about entering draft season. But keep in mind that Carr had one of the NFL’s weaker supporting casts in terms of skill position assistance. First round WR Henry Ruggs III was underwhelming, Tyrell Williams was quickly injured, third-round WR Bryan Edwards was injured, and his best receiver all year was free agent castoff Nelson Agholor. TE Darren Walls is a stud, and Carr targeted him accordingly. Despite that subpar cast of characters, you might be surprised at the following few marks.
Carr graded out as PFF’s No. 10 QB, posted the eighth-best QB DVOA (14%, tied with Dak Prescott), and the NFL’s second-best ALEX score (4.4); his ALEX score was behind only Aaron Rodgers’ (4.8), and the next-best mark was Patrick Mahomes (3.0). Yes, I’m going to explain what “ALEX” is: “ALEX represents Air Less EXpected on third downs, the average difference between the length of the quarterback's throw and the distance needed for a new set of downs.” All these numbers tell us is that while Carr wasn’t piling up stats, he was playing the position very well and that eventually will translate to fantasy output.
Carr returns Waller to the offense this season, he’ll have an offseason to gel more with Ruggs, and they upgraded on Agholor in free agency by adding John Brown. Las Vegas also upgraded their backfield, bringing in Kenyan Drake to possibly handle the passing down work that they inexplicably won’t trust Josh Jacobs with. While we all wish Jacobs would just be given a chance as a three-down workhorse, we’ should be happy to see Drake take those snaps from the wholly unexciting Jalen Richard.
We should also address Carr’s reputation as a passer who loves nothing more than short, safe throws. The numbers do not bear this out. Carr averaged 8.5 air yards per attempt, ninth-most in the league and more than Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Justin Herbert. His 7.53 adjusted net yards per pass attempt were eighth-best in football. He was also one of the better-protected QBs in football last season, with the Raiders ranking Top 10 in adjusted sack rate and adding to the offensive line in the draft by taking a first-round lineman, Alex Leatherwood out of Alabama.
None of this means that Carr is someone you should reach for in snake drafts or overpay for in auctions. Rather, he’s someone to keep in mind when you’re deciding when to pull the trigger on QB. If you still see RBs or WRs you like, it might make sense to keep taking swings at those positions, and scooping up Carr very late/very cheaply. The Raiders have been talked about as a team that might try to bring in competition for Carr, but since Gruden has arrived the biggest competitor has been Marcus Mariota. It’s clear Gruden has faith in Carr, and based on various metrics Carr has rewarded that faith. All it takes is a spike in his TD% to take him from middle of the pack to back-end QB1, and his five rushing touchdowns in the last two seasons sure don’t hurt.