Daniel Jones May Be The Sneakiest QB Value Of 2021

In the NFL, the most valuable asset a franchise can possess is a star QB on a rookie contract. In fantasy, it’s not too different. QBs score the most of any position, but there is also the most depth. Paying for a standout has benefits, and it’s always a great idea to spend up for Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes, however, paying up can backfire; last season, anyone who had Lamar Jackson paid a premium, and even though his year-end stats were Top 10, he was flat out not a value. Snaring a high-end fantasy QB in later rounds/at lower auction value is one of the surest ways to wind up in the fantasy playoffs. And… take a very, very deep breath…Daniel Jones looks like the type of QB capable of delivering that value.

I get it, last season Jones threw 11 touchdowns in 14 games. That’s unfathomably bad in this era of high-flying offenses. But the Giants are nearing the end of their rope with him, and have invested in giving him every tool to succeed. They signed the top WR on the free agent market (Kenny Golladay), drafted a game-breaker in the first round (Kadarius Toney), and will have superstar dual-threat RB Saquon Barkley surrounding him entering 2021. None of this means Jones will morph into a high-end passer, but these weapons will boost his production to a level that’s more acceptable and raise his ceiling. The real reason to believe in his fantasy upside is his rushing floor.

Jones averaged 6.5 yards per rushing attempt last season, a better mark than Lamar Jackson (6.3) or Kyler Murray (6.2). Jones also sustained a knee injury in Week 12 vs. the Bengals that hampered his rushing ability for the rest of the season, forced him to miss two games, and likely inhibited his performance as a passer as well. Prior to that injury, Jones was averaging 38.4 rushing yards per game and 4.9 attempts. Post injury, those numbers fell to 3.5 attempts and 26.8 yards. In Weeks 13 and 16 he only registered one total attempt. It’s not as publicized, but Jones is quietly one of the premier threats at the position on the ground, and he’ll only be more dangerous with his legs with elite options at the skill positions. He’ll also benefit from a Giants’ offensive line that stealthily improved over the second half of the season, which went unnoticed by most.

I understand if you’re worried about Jones’ inability to consistently move the ball through the air, but think about this. He is currently going at pick No. 163 per Rotowire (half-PPR), a solid 84 picks after Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, in four starts Hurts – again, being drafted as a QB1 – averaged 70.7 yards per game through the air, threw six touchdowns against four picks, and posted a truly putrid 50.2% completion rate. Hurts was more inaccurate, posted a higher interception rate and averaged fewer yards per game than Jones. Jones earned a 78.4 grade from PFF, ranking him 18th in the NFL, while Hurts graded 56.2, good for 37th! Hurts’ passing graded out at 57.5, compared to Jones at 74.4.

And I understand Hurts’ primary value is what we are projecting for him as a rusher, but so far we’ve seen Hurts be a lesser rusher than Jones. Jones’ rushing earned a 78.8 grade from PFF compared to Hurts’ 55.4. Hurts rushed for fewer yards per game, but had his production boosted by scoring three times on the ground in four starts. It’s fair to expect Hurts to score more rushing touchdowns, but Jones can easily outpace him in yardage, and will arguably deliver more consistent points on the ground, and giving your team a higher floor. Based on these numbers, and the additions/returns for the Giants’ offense, it really does not make much sense to burn a Top 75 pick on Hurts when you can have the same (or better) player much later in Jones.

I would not recommend drafting either of these players with the expectation of landing a locked in, year-long starter but I’d definitely support taking a flier on Jones late. If you’re at all excited about Hurts, Jones simply looks like a better version on the cheap.