Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Seatte S
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Chris Carson, RB (ADP: 31): Carson was one of the most reliable RBs in fantasy last season, and based on the depth chart, appears to be in position to run it back in the same fashion in 2020. The problem is that Carson fractured his hip late last season, and even though he’s on track to be ready for Week 1, he’s been oft-injured and just broke his damn hip. Seattle has long relied heavily on the run, so if Carson really is fine it’s safe to assume that he will be among the NFL’s leaders in attempts. Carson has had that role for two seasons, and topped 1,100 yard in both with 18 total touchdowns. I am a bit skeptical that Carson is going to hit the ground running after such a severe injury, but there’s a bit of skepticism built into this ADP. I can’t say I am in love with where he’s being drafted, but at No. 31 overall it shouldn’t make or break a well-drafted roster.
Tyler Lockett, WR (ADP: 50): Lockett is being underrated for the third straight year, and you should take advantage. He’s the WR20 off the board, despite 18 touchdowns in the past two seasons, 1,057 yards last year, and his emergence as the clear No. 1 option for Russell Wilson. He saw 110 targets in 2019, a career high, and the 12th highest receiving grade from PFF. Even better, that becomes a Top 10 grade if you eliminate Antonio Brown and Marvin Hall from the equation. Lockett is a deep threat, as well as a player who can take short targets and make plays. He’s slight, but he’s proven to be versatile and capable of putting up big man TD numbers. Lockett is an excellent target for owners who want to go RB heavy early, or pick up a top TE.
D.K. Metcalf, WR (ADP: 51): Metcalf is a popular name this draft season, and I am a bit concerned. I absolutely believe in the talent here – 58 catches, 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie tells the story – but I am not sure Metcalf will be able to build much on that season in this offense. As talented as he is, and as amazing as Wilson is, Seattle attempted the 10th-fewest passes in the league. Lockett is going to lead the team in targets, and they added a new tight end who will eat into Metcalf’s looks as well. At 15.5 yards per catch, Metcalf makes sense as a WR2 with blowup potential, but this ADP is for more consistent options. As much as I like him, this is too early unless the Seahawks offense shifts into Wilson’s control.
Russell Wilson, QB (ADP: 57): Wilson tends to finish inside the Top 10 at the position without offering a ton of week-to-week consistency thanks to Seattle’s insistence on running the football, and refusal to let Wilson lead the way. He is propped up by high TD percentages, and by taking care of the football, and that’s not going to change in 2020. Wilson is also one of the best rushing QBs in football; that doesn’t always stand out statistically – in 2018 he had zero rushing touchdowns – but last year he added 342 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Normally, this ADP is too high for me to take Wilson, and I’d typically balk at him at QB5 because of his propensity for off games. This year, however, I’m worried about Carson’s hip and can envision a world in which Wilson is unleashed like Dak Prescott was last season. If that happens, Wilson really could be the QB1 with weapons like Lockett and Metcalf at his disposal. This is high, but it’s not the worst gamble you could make. After all, he was PFF’s highest graded QB.
Value:
Deep Sleepers:
Rashaad Penny, RB (ADP: 172): This ADP is puzzling, as Penny tore his ACL in Week 14 last year and is a near-lock to miss at least six weeks on the PUP. His talent is crazy, and that’s desirable in such a run-heavy offense, but even if he was healthy he’d still have to contend with Carson who dominated the workload when both were at full strength. At best, you’re hoping for him to come back in Week 7 to a negative timeshare. I don’t recommend drafting Penny at all in redraft leagues, and even later than this even in keeper formats. Don’t waste a roster spot for six weeks, minimum.
Greg Olsen, TE (ADP: 184): Olsen is old, and hasn’t been the 1,000-yard lock of days past in three seasons. Opportunity trumps ability though, and Russell Wilson makes use of his tight ends. Olsen was mostly injured in his final three seasons with the Panthers, and dealing with injured (Cam Newton) or atrocious (Kyle Allen, Will Grier) quarterbacks. Wilson is on another planet from those guys, and Olsen could find himself with a late-career touchdown spike. I’m not excited about him, but if you’re the type to punt the position in drafts, Olsen makes a lot of sense.
Carlos Hyde, RB (ADP: 205): I’ll just say it, Hyde is underrated. He will not blow anyone away with his play, but he was a 1,000-yard rusher for the Texans last season, and has scored five or more touchdowns every year since 2016. He’s someone I’d invest in if I’ve drafted Chris Carson, because if Carson gets hurt then Hyde will be able to replace his production. No, he won’t be as effective for Seattle as Carson, but fantasy owners only care about the stats. Give Hyde Carson’s workload, and you’re going to see 1,000+ yards and at least six scores. That’s major production from a guy going after pick No. 200.
David Moore, WR (ADP: 320): You can’t draft Moore, but he’s someone to be aware of if Lockett or Metcalf get hurt during camp. Moore has averaged more than 17 yards per catch the last two seasons, and scored five times in 2018. Opportunity is not there for him, but the talent is.