Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: San Francisco 49ers
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
George Kittle, TE (ADP: 20): Kittle at No. 20 may seem high for the consensus No. 2 TE, but I don’t think it’s a reach at all. The 49ers are a run-first team, no doubt about it, but the 49ers ranked eighth in Weighted Offense in 2019, and also boasted a Top 10 passing offense. That’s encouraging stuff for Kittle, who will monopolize the target share on this hyper efficient team. San Francisco attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the NFL, but ranked third in net yards gained per attempt. Kittle was a model of efficiency, reeling in 85 of 107 targets for 1,053 yards and five touchdowns. San Fran’s top WR Deebo Samuel is in danger of missing time to start the year with a preseason foot injury, so Kittle should be hyper targeted in the early going. He is just as talented as Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, and even though the Chiefs are the better offense, Kittle has a strong claim to be the preseason TE1 based on his volume. I would have zero issues pulling the trigger on Kittle at No. 20 and owning the position every week.
Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP: 64): Mostert is one of my favorite buys this season, especially now that he’s got his contract situation sorted out. The pro-Mostert argument is largely covered here, but to recap, he finally received a legitimate opportunity to shine and rewarded the Niners with 772 yards and eight touchdowns on just 137 carries, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Prior to 2019, he’d had very little opportunity to play, but in those extremely limited chances he’s never rushed for fewer than six yards per attempt. Much will be made of him sharing work, and potentially slotting in behind Tevin Coleman, but the advanced metrics would say that’s a mistake. He posted a 26.08% DVOA, tops in the NFL by a lot with Mark Ingram at second at 19.8%.
Even if Mostert does share carries, he should lead the committee, and see an uptick even if it’s a 50/50 split with Matt Breida’s 127 attempts vacated. Mostert should, at worst, get to 160 carries as a floor which would be plenty for him to be valuable to fantasy teams at nearly six yards per carry. If he gets a real workhorse load he’s a potential league-winner.
Deebo Samuel, WR (ADP: 67): There was a lot of hype for Samuel after he exploded late last season, but that’s all been dampened by his broken foot, which could land him on the PUP to start the season. It’s interesting that he’s still being drafted as a Top 30 receiver, and I’d call that a mistake. As mentioned earlier, this team was a bottom five offense in terms of pass attempts, and Kittle is going to be the one who draws the most looks. Samuel was a yards-after-catch beast, and he also scored three rushing touchdowns, which definitely raises his floor in such a low passing volume attack. Still, I don’t like that he is dealing with a broken foot, and this ADP seems foolish.
Tevin Coleman, RB (ADP: 109): Coleman is clearly expected by many to take a backseat to Mostert, and this ADP could lead many to prefer Coleman here, as there could be value. While Mostert is generating excitement, the pair did each rush a team-high 137 times. The problem is that Mostert was much more effective, scoring two more touchdowns and amassing 218 more yards. While Mostert posted the top RB DVOA, Coleman checked in at 43rd (-15.3%). Coleman will have huge value if Mostert gets hurt, but the 49ers would be flat out dumb to give these two a 50/50 workload split when Mostert was so vastly superior. This is a fine ADP, and I don’t think anyone should reach, nor do I think it’s necessary for Mostert owners to draft both guys.
Value:
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (ADP: 151): Yes, this team runs a ton, but Garoppolo does have a little upside. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards and put up a respectable 27 touchdowns. I’d like him more with a healthy Deebo Samuel, but Kittle is a premier target anywhere on the field, but especially in the red zone. This is one of football’s most efficient offenses, and if he’s turned loose more in the red zone he could have a surprising season. I’m not drafting him, but I would happily stream him in the right matchups; keep in mind, he did post three four-touchdown games.
Deep Sleepers:
Brandon Aiyuk, WR (ADP: 190): Aiyuk, a surprise first round pick, may well be the No. 1 receiver for the first six weeks. With Samuel potentially on the PUP, Aiyuk has the size for red zone targets and athletic ability to attack defenses at all levels of the field. Only game time will prove it at this level, but he was a monster at Arizona State, scoring eight touchdowns and posting 1,192 receiving yards as a senior. Due to San Francisco’s low volume, I wouldn’t want to start him in any leagues in Week 1, but I’m not opposed to a late lottery ticket draft pick on him. There’s definite blowup potential.
Jerick McKinnon, RB (ADP: 307): It’s extremely difficult to care about McKinnon, who hasn’t touched the field since 2017 due to multiple serious injuries. But it says something the 49ers have kept him on the team. It means they feel he can contribute, and that would take the form of passing downs. When we last saw McKinnon, he had caught a career-best 51 passes for the Vikings for 421 yards and two scores. His upside is very limited because he will not threaten Mostert or Coleman at all for any early down work, but he might worm his way into a desperation, deep-league full-PPR FLEX type if he can stay healthy.
Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP: 319): Bourne is pretty pedestrian as fantasy receivers go, but he could have value in deep, full-PPR formats if Samuel is to miss time. He caught 30 passes for five touchdowns last year, so increased volume should help his production. He’s not exciting, but he has a higher floor than is typical of a pick outside the Top 300.
Dante Pettis, WR (ADP: N/A): Pettis was hyped last season coming off a five-touchdown campaign in 2018, and was an absolute bust, finishing with 11 receptions, 109 yards and two scores. Nothing about his season makes him palatable, but he is a very physically gifted receiver and if Samuel is out, there’s a path to playing time. He averaged 17.3 yards per catch as a rookie, which was only two years ago, so there’s no reason he can’t get himself straightened out. I don’t hate this as a last-round choice.