Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Pittsburgh Steelers
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP: 41): Smith-Schuster was easily a Top 5 bust for fantasy owners last year, wedging his way into the first round of some drafts only to put up 42 receptions, 552 yards and three touchdowns in 12 injury-marred games. There’s no way around it, 2019 was a complete disaster. That doesn’t mean that we should simply abandon ship, however. Smith-Schuster is only in his third year, and he barely played at all with QB Ben Roethlisberger, who suffered a season-ending elbow injury in the first half of Week 1. Yes, an elite receiver should be able to be useful even with bad QB play, but Pittsburgh had some of the worst QB play in NFL history, and the entire offense was the worst in football. You almost have to throw away last season, and look at Juju’s past, which is much more fun.
As a rookie he scored seven touchdowns, and racked up 917 yards on only 58 receptions, flashing big play ability. In 2018 he morphed into a fantasy juggernaut, catching 111 passes for more than 1,400 yards and scoring seven times. Both of those fantastic campaigns came with Roethlisberger at the helm – and he will be back this season – but also with Antonio Brown in the mix drawing opponents’ top defenders. Some may attribute Smith-Schuster’s drastic downfall to having to step outside Brown’s shadow, but I do believe it had much more to do with atrocious QB play and poor health. I think this is a fair ADP for Smith-Schuster, and that he can end up providing value as a WR1 with a few breaks.
James Conner, RB (ADP: 44): Conner is another hard-luck case from 2019 who suffered a great deal with Roethlisberger injured. One benefit of the terrible offense last season was that it spurred the acquisition of DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, a move that transformed the Steelers into arguably the NFL’s best defense. That trend should continue in 2020, which could mean a more run-based approach to the offense, especially with Roethlisberger nearing age 40. With volume, we know Conner has the ability to be elite. In 2018 Conner stepped in for Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers barely missed a beat, with Conner totaling 1,470 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns. Ability is not a question, but health is. Conner started 12 games in 2018, and just 10 last season. Pittsburgh didn’t make any major moves in the backfield, indicating faith in him, and Mike Tomlin’s tendency is to ride one RB is positive. I don’t like to plan around injury, so Conner as the 20th RB off the board strikes me as a value.
Value:
Diontae Johnson, WR (ADP: 110): Johnson did surprisingly well with the terrible QBs he had throwing the ball to him, putting up 59 receptions, 680 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged a healthy 11.7 yards per reception, and figures to improve on these numbers with Roethlisberger, Smith-Schuster and Conner all healthy (fingers crossed). Some of the advanced numbers aren’t kind to him though, which gives me some pause. He received a 67.9 overall grade from PFF, good for just 65th in the league, and he had just the 63rd-best WR DVOA per Football Outsiders. Some are predicting a breakout for Johnson, but I believe what we saw last season is who he is. This is a decent matchup-based FLEX, with upside if Smith-Schuster gets hurt, but the ADP is just fine here. There’s no need to reach.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB (ADP: 125): Big Ben was amazing in 2018, topping 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He missed all of last season, but we have seen flashes of Roethlisberger as a fantasy monster, and versions of him that are unplayable. In 2020, I can’t rule out a big season from the future Hall of Famer, but he’s a 38-year-old coming off an injury to his throwing elbow who no longer has Antonio Brown and prime Le’Veon Bell at his disposal. Pittsburgh still has a nice cache of skill players, but this is likely to be a less explosive offense moving forward, especially with their dominant defense. Drafting him 15th at the position makes sense, and I like him as a matchup play, or to pair him with a high-variance guy such as Cam Newton.
Eric Ebron, TE (ADP: 155): Ebron is extremely QB-dependent. Once a Top 10 overall pick, Ebron has made good on his considerable upside one time, in 2018 when he had Andrew Luck as his QB. Luck was well-known for utilizing his TEs, and with Ebron he hyper targeted him in the red zone resulting in a 13-TD campaign. Ebron has scored 13 touchdowns in his other five seasons combined. It’s important to note this, because once again Ebron is on a team with a TE-friendly passer. In 2018 Roethlisberger targeted Vance McDonald 72 times. In 2017, Steelers TEs were targeted 96 times and scored five times. Ebron is a better pass-catcher than any Steelers TE since Heath Miller, and unlike Miller, he won’t have to deal with an all-time great in Antonio Brown dominating target share. Ebron will be inconsistent, as he relies heavily on touchdowns, but there’s potential for a double-digit touchdown season. If you plan to punt TE in your draft, Ebron is a fine target late.
Deep Sleepers:
James Washington, WR (ADP: 210): Washington has been left for dead with all the Diontae Johnson love, but Washington was a big play guy at times in 2019, and he was a second round pick only two years ago. Washington averaged 16.7 yards per reception, and caught 44 passes for 735 yards last year. Those numbers aren’t all that different from what Johnson was able to do, and you’re able to draft Washington literally 100 picks later. I’m not sure that makes sense.
Anthony McFarland Jr., RB (ADP: 243): McFarland is very talented, but unlikely to be meaningful to fantasy owners without an injury to Conner. Even then, he has to deal with Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels in the RB rotation, two players who are less talented, but benefit from the lack of preseason games. If Conner did get hurt, McFarland is the back I’d want to own, but that’s something to worry about when the time comes. For now, he’s not draftable.
Chase Claypool, WR (ADP: 260): Truthfully, Smith-Schuster and Conner are the only Steelers I really want to own. Their other WRs are lottery tickets, especially since we don’t know quite what to expect from Big Ben. That said, if you want to throw a dart at another Steelers wideout, I think Claypool is my favorite. The rookie out of Notre Dame is massive, standing at 6’4, 238 lbs. He scored 13 TDs last year as a senior, and topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his college career. His stats the previous three seasons are underwhelming, but his senior year could simply have been him morphing into an elite prospect. I look at him, and I see Bucs WR Mike Evans. Give a player like that to Roethlisberger, and yeah, I’m not afraid to burn my last pick on him and see what happens.