Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Must Own = Top 120

Value = 120-200

Deep Sleeper = 200 or later

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Must Own:

Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 19): Godwin is one of the most interesting fantasy assets in the early parts of drafts, because he exploded last season in one of the NFL’s best passing offenses, and upgraded at QB from Jameis Winston to arguably the greatest of all time in Tom Brady. The thing is, while Brady is better than Winston by lightyears, he may not be such a positive for fantasy output. Part of Tampa Bay’s passing success last season was game script. Winston was such a turnover machine, and the Bucs’ defense was such a disaster, that Winston was forced to throw nonstop. That resulted in the fourth-most attempts in the NFL, and the third-most yards. With Brady, we can likely expect less volume, but potentially more efficient production.

As far as whether or not Godwin was a product of circumstance, he absolutely wasn’t. Godwin is a total stud; he had hype as a breakout entering 2019, and exceeded all our wildest dreams. He finished the season with 86 receptions, 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns in just 14 games. He graded out as the No. 1 overall WR per PFF.com in 2019, and was almost identical to Michael Thomas on a purely receiving basis. He was also responsible for the highest WR DVOA per Football Oustiders, and was second to only Thomas in Defense Adjusted Yards Per Reception (DYAR). He’s an absolute monster. It’s fair to expect his numbers to dip somewhat from last year’s highs, but he could easily increase his touchdown total even if the receptions and yards decrease. And we shouldn’t go crazy about the potential dip in offensive volume. This is still a subpar defense, and the quality of QB has risen. Godwin is fine, and I believe is underrated even at this ADP.

Mike Evans, WR (ADP: 25): Evans shares all of the team-based concerns Godwin does, and I’m equally confident that he’ll be completely fine for fantasy purposes. While he’s inconsistent from game to game, Evans is extremely consistent as far as year end elite standing. He has topped 65 catches and 1,000 yards in each of his six NFL seasons, hit double-digit touchdowns twice, and has found the end zone eight times in back-to-back campaigns. I see no reason to downgrade a WR  because he’s replacing his previous QB with Tom Brady. Take him extremely comfortably at this ADP, as he’ll probably be a value.

Rob Gronkowski, TE (ADP: 87): Gronkowski is someone I’ve talked about a bunch this offseason, and at the time of this writing he’s being drafted as a Top 10 TE. This is a mistake in my opinion, because he’s at best a third option for Brady, and the last time we saw him in the NFL he put up 47 catches, 682 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games. He’s a full season removed from that disappointing output and competing with far superior pass-catchers for target share. I can envision a world in which Gronk scores 10+ touchdowns if Brady hyper targets him in the red zone, but I don’t expect the game-breaking Gronk of old to ever return, even if he’s had a year off to heal his body. At this point in the draft there are still lottery ticket types at RB/WR you can draft, while taking younger TEs with more upside even further down the line. Lastly, if Gronk starts slow he’ll be more difficult to cut than the Mike Gesicki-types I’d prefer to target as a later option.

Tom Brady, QB (ADP: 93): Brady is going to be a very interesting fantasy asset as well, as he’s entering his age-43 season and coming off back-to-back campaigns of fewer than 30 touchdown passes. He has the best reputation ever, but the truth is that he’s slipped some in recent seasons, as 40+-year-old players do. Brady graded as the 12th-best QB in football last year per PFF, and his 2.4% QB DVOA was pedestrian. He posted a career-low 60.8% completion percentage, and a brutal 6.6 yards per attempt average. These are all in line with a QB that is, again, 43 freaking years old.

On the flip side, Brady still limits turnovers, still surpassed 4,000 yards, and did this with one of the NFL’s weakest receiving corps. He’s going from Julian Edelman being far and away his best option, to a team with two All-Pro receivers, a future Hall of Famer at TE, and another first round pick as a second TE. If Brady is protected well, his accuracy is going to result in big plays with these kind of weapons. I see the red flags, and I’m ignoring them. Brady is far better than a back-end Top 12 QB, and he’s going to reward fantasy owners’ faith. I need to see the fall-off before I believe it, and I’m refusing to downplay the Brady-Bruce Arians pairing.

Ronald Jones, RB (ADPP: 92): Jones is currently the 34th RB off the board, and while I’m not a big fan of his this could become a value. Jones is not a pass-catcher, and this is an offense that does not need the running game to be effective. With that said, Jones is the clear leader for early-down work, and he averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per attempt in 2019 while scoring six touchdowns. The Bucs finally dumped Peyton Barber, so Jones’ workload is going to rise. Adding a rookie RB in the draft isn’t great, but ultimately Jones is a starter that’s being drafted among backups. I’d hope you aren’t relying on him, but this ADP is fine.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB (ADP: 104): Vaughn is the rookie going 12 spots later than Jones, and plenty of people are excited. I’m not sure why. He’s a third-round pick with receiving chops whom most expect to handle passing down work for the Bucs, and the logic is that Brady passes to his RBs, so he’ll be fantasy relevant. I say…maybe? Brady passed a ton to James White – and Shane Vereen before him – largely because the Patriots rarely surrounded Brady with premier WR talent. Why would Brady try to get the ball to Vaughn when he can target Godwin, Evans and Gronkowski? If Vaughn manages to become a three-down back, color me interested. Until then, I don’t see much value in this ADP.

Value:

O.J. Howard, TE (ADP: 186): Howard, oh how I wait for you to explode! I’m in love with O.J. Howard’s talent, and that hasn’t changed. I am not touching him in fantasy drafts though, even if I’m encouraged by reports of the Bucs running two-TE sets as a base offense. Howard could morph into a major factor if Gronkowski gets injured, but at this point he seems more like a potential TD vulture further eating into any Gronk optimism I might have.

Deep Sleepers:

LeSean McCoy, RB (ADP: 345): McCoy is a recent signing who is probably shot. I’m not particularly excited about his prospects in this pass-heavy offense, but if he flashes during training camp it’s possible he could chip into Ronald Jones’ workload. Just keep an eye on him this preseason, even if it’s more about figuring out Jones’ value than any interest in him.