Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Tennessee Titans
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Must Own:
Derrick Henry, RB (ADP: 6): Henry was a league winner in 2019, and notched double-digit rushing touchdowns for the second straight season. Volume reigns supreme in fantasy football, and even though Henry is not a factor in the passing game, he is going to be among the NFL’s leaders in rushing attempts. The thing is, Henry jumped up so drastically – 215 carries in 2018 to 303 in 2019 – that one has to wonder if Tennessee feels a need to dial it back just a bit, if only to preserve him better. Henry is an absolute monstrosity of a man, but that type of workload can wear on anyone, as he’s only human. I do not foresee another 300+ carries for the big man in 2020, but he’ll be Top 5 in attempts, and shouldn’t have any issue clearing double-digit touchdowns for a third consecutive campaign. As a near-lock for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, Henry’s a safe first round pick, but I think he’s closer to the back end than No. 6 overall. At the top, nitpicking is necessary; Henry’s inability to contribute as a receiver could lead to him being game scripted out of the offense at times, and could limit upside if he has poor touchdown luck. But he also has the ceiling of No. 1 overall RB.
A.J. Brown, WR (ADP: 37): Brown was a favorite of mine in the 2019 draft class, and as soon as Tennessee figured out he needed to be on the field more, he was dominant. Brown finished 2019 with 52 receptions, 1,051 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. Brown added 60 rushing yards (three attempts) and a touchdown on the ground for good measure. He averaged more than 20 yards per catch, and averaged 4.2 receptions and 94 yards over his final five games when his snap count consistently stayed over 79%. The knock on Brown is that he’s in a run-heavy offense that will lean on Henry for the most part. The flip side is that Brown is going to dominate the Titans’ target share when Ryan Tannehill does pass (6.1 targets per game from Week 10 on), and he’s such a beast once the ball is in his hands that he can do tremendous damage on fewer targets than elite receivers usually receive. Brown is currently the 14th receiver off the board in half-PPR formats, and I’d comfortably take him earlier than that. Brown is going to be an elite fantasy receiver by season’s end.
Value:
Ryan Tannehill, QB (ADP: 132): There’s some trepidation about Tannehill despite him leading Tennessee to an AFC Championship and putting up the best season of his career. It’s understandable. Tennessee attempted the second-fewest passes in football last season, and they’ve re-signed their workhorse RB to a lucrative extension. He averaged a pedestrian 228.5 yards per game through the air, and a potentially unsustainable 7.7% touchdown rate. There are reasons to believe, though.
Tannehill was tied for No. 3 overall QB grade (90.3) by PFF with Patrick Mahomes, who just signed the biggest contract extension in NFL history. He posted the fifth-best QB DVOA (28%) per Football Outsiders, was Top 10 in DYAR (778) and QBR (62.2). Those favorable advanced metrics hint at the potential for Tannehill to remain highly efficient, especially with one of football’s better offensive lines, a dominant RB and an elite pass-catcher. In addition to his hyper-efficiency throwing the ball, Tannehill is an underrated rusher at the position. He rushed 43 times for 185 yards and four touchdowns, which are extremely plausible numbers on the ground and which should go up as he only started 10 games last season. Ultimately, you want to see more volume from him and that’s going to limit the upside, but Tannehill is an excellent option for owners who refuse to invest in the position early.
Jonnu Smith, TE (ADP: 131): Smith has long been a frustrating player for fantasy owners, who have always seen the explosive potential in him only to have it blocked by Delanie Walker. The tight end position belongs to Smith now, and he flashed what he’s capable of after Walker got hurt last year. Smith finished the 2019 campaign with 35 catches, 439 yards and three scores. From Weeks 13-15, Smith averaged almost four catches and 50 yards per game, and scored twice. That type of production is a must-start at tight end, especially with touchdown upside. Smith also has shocking yards after the catch potential because of his speed, and he averaged 10 yards per target and 12.5 yards per reception. These are impressive numbers for a tight end. Smith should be taken inside the Top 12 strictly based off his potential, but he’s currently the 16th TE off the board. The low volume of Tennessee’s passing game makes him a threat to have very bad weeks, but he’s easily the second-best receiving option Tannehill has, so I’d expect his volume to increase, and for him to deliver big value on his ADP.
Deep Sleepers:
Corey Davis, WR (ADP: 215): Davis has all the physical tools, but after three years of waiting I’ve moved off him. It wouldn’t shock me if Davis had some kind of DeVante Parker-esque renaissance after we’ve all given up on him, but this is not the offense for it. Davis will have a few annoyingly solid games, but this offense isn’t built to support three consistent receiving options. In my humble opinion, Davis is little more than a best ball league dart throw, or matchup-specific DFS play.
Darrynton Evans, RB (ADP: 234): Evans, a third-round pick out of Appalachian State, put up some gaudy stats as a junior. 1,480 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at regardless of the level of competition, and his 198 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns point to his ability to be a passing down back for the Titans. That role isn’t worth drafting, but he could be a lottery ticket in full-PPR formats, and he’s likely next in line in the event of a Henry injury. I wouldn’t draft him, even if you invest heavily in Henry, but he’s worth monitoring in the early going.
Adam Humphries, WR (ADP: 307): Humphries, once a PPR-friendly late option, is caught in the wrong offense. Brown is going to monopolize targets, Smith is a primary red zone option, and everything else is a handoff to Henry. Humphries only caught 37 passes in 12 games last season, so outside of matchups that are truly horrid against slot receivers, you can safely ignore Humphries.