Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Cincinnati Bengals
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Joe Mixon, RB (ADP: 9): Mixon is a stud RB, who really struggled in the early going last season causing many owners to rage trade him, or even drop him. He turned it around later in the season and spent much of the second half of 2019 putting up very useful fantasy numbers. That should continue in 2020, with A.J. Green healthy, the No. 1 overall pick representing an upgrade at QB, and a second season with head coach Zac Taylor. Cincinnati’s offensive line is still going to be an issue at times, but volume reigns supreme, and Mixon will be among the NFL leaders in rushing attempts. He’s also the primary option around the goal line, and his five rushing TDs are a positive regression waiting to happen. I’d like a Top 10 back to be a bit more involved in the passing game, or have massive Derrick Henry-esque rushing potential, which Mixon doesn’t, so this ADP is slightly high. Still, he’s a back-end RB1, and drafting him 9th won’t be what keeps you from a fantasy title.
A.J. Green, WR (ADP: 68): Green is a favorite of mine, and I covered his upside here. Yes, he’s in his age-32 season, but he didn’t play all of last season, so that saves us some wear and tear. He has not been healthy for a full season since 2017, but at no point has he shown any decline when healthy and on the field. Green put up 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns in 2017, and before getting hurt halfway through 2018, he was averaging 77.1 yards per game and had scored six touchdowns in nine games. Maybe this is the start of the fall-off, but when we’re talking about a Hall of Fame-caliber player like Green, I’ll wait to see the decline before I predict it, especially with an extremely promising new QB in the mix.
Tyler Boyd, WR (ADP: 74): Boyd is currently the WR30, which feels a bit optimistic with Green back in the mix. Boyd totaled 90 receptions, 1,046 and five touchdowns last year in what was a total mess of a season. That’s the absolute ceiling for him though, and now he’ll be contending with Green, a high-end rookie WR, and a new (better) QB. Boyd’s spent much of the past season and a half as Cincinnati’s de facto WR1, and that’s just not the case entering 2020. Boyd is a very safe full-PPR WR2, and a solid half-PPR WR2, but counting on him to get back to 1,000 yards with a good TD total seems dicey. I’d like to see his ADP drop, and at this point in the draft I’ll likely pass.
Value:
Joe Burrow, QB (ADP: 126): Burrow wasn’t anywhere near the No. 1 overall pick radar entering 2019, but leading a historically great LSU offense to a National Championship changes things. It’d be foolish to expect him to just waltz into the NFL and be the same QB he was in college, but the numbers last year at LSU are staggering. He threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns while tossing just six interceptions. He also rushed for 368 yards and five touchdowns; no one will mistake him for Kyler Murray, but he is capable of contributing on the ground, and he’s surrounded by quality weapons in the receiving game. Right now, he’s the 16th QB off the board, which seems like a decent draft spot for someone with this kind of potential. However, as of this writing, Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill are both going after Burrow, and in that context I can’t ride with a rookie QB over successful veterans with high rushing floors. I’ll pass at No. 126.
Deep Sleepers:
John Ross, WR (ADP: 205): Ross is injury prone, and on his way out, but there is a ton of talent here and he’s flashed it. Last season Ross started off scorching, burning Seattle and San Francisco for 270 yards and three touchdowns before cooling off for two weeks, and then missing the next nine games due to injury. Ross isn’t someone I’d draft, because I expect Tee Higgins to take his role in the offense, but if the injury bug bites Ross is worth a waiver wire flier.
Tee Higgins, WR (ADP: 208): Higgins’ team was blown away by Burrow in the National Championship, but now that they’re united, Higgins will probably find he has a new friend. Higgins was lost in the 2020 draft class hype as more focus was put on CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy, but Higgins put up 1,1,67 yards and 13 touchdowns. Higgins is a serious deep threat, but his ceiling may be limited because he’s got some established players also fighting for looks from Burrow, and this offense hasn’t proven it can sustain multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catchers. I think he’s a decent flier, especially this late, because of A.J. Green’s recent injury history, but I’m a fan of Higgins’ longer-term prospects than I am of him in 2020.
Giovani Bernard, RB (ADP: 240): Bernard no longer has standalone value in Cincinnati, but he is a clear-cut handcuff for Mixon, with major dual threat upside if Mixon were to miss significant time.
Auden Tate, WR (ADP: 297): Tate, a 6’5, 228-lb. beast, is a nightmare in the red zone. He only scored one touchdown last season, despite multiple injuries to the Bengals’ receiving corps, but if he sees the field enough that number should shoot up in 2020. The problem is opportunity; this is a deep crew, and even though he averaged 14.4 yards per reception, I do like Green, Boyd and Higgins more. Just keep an eye on him early; with size like this, he could be a pseudo-TE when the Bengals are in close, as teams will be focusing on Mixon and Green.