Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Cleveland Browns
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 11): Chubb is a sneaky threat to finish as the RB1, and even though his ADP is just outside the Top 10, I feel he’s being underdrafted. The presence of Kareem Hunt is worrying some, but after Hunt returned from suspension last season, Chubb proved he could still do plenty while sharing time. He finished 2019 with more than 1,400 rushing yards, and while Hunt is going to see the majority of passing down work, Chubb can catch the football too; he finished the season with 36 catches for 273 yards. His performance was well-received analytically, as he earned an 88.7 grade from PFF, the best grade at the position and a Top 12 RB DVOA. Total stud.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR (ADP: 27): Beckham was undoubtedly a disappointment in 2019, and injuries have caused him to overwhelm several seasons in a row. While he played in more games in 2019, he also apparently battled a hip injury he sustained in training camp, which explains the meager output. And despite all that, plus a QB who was as big a mess as any in the NFL, Beckham managed to claw out 1,035 receiving yards and 74 receptions. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Beckham fully healthy, but when that was the case, he was a lock for 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs. Not many players drafted outside the Top 25 have the physical ability to be the No. 1 player at their position, but Beckham absolutely possesses that potential, especially if Baker Mayfield gets his act together under center and is protected. This ADP might not be a “value,” but I don’t have any issue with it either.
Kareem Hunt, RB (ADP: 72): Hunt has plenty of standalone value despite not being the starter for the Browns, but his ADP is a tad high for my liking because it’s not easy to take Chubb off the field or put the ball in someone else’s hands. Hunt caught 37 passes for 285 yards, similar to Chubb’s output in literally half the games. There’s also been talk of him lining up at WR at times; often those types of stories are all hype, but if they deploy him that way he can do damage. Hunt has RB1 ability if Chubb gets hurt, but as of now, in this role, I think the ADP is a bit high and he’ll need a slightly fluky TD rate to justify it.
Jarvis Landry, WR (ADP: 75): Landry is consistent as rain, but has never shown the chops to break into elite fantasy territory. Because of that, his ADP hovers around this area every year, even though it should be higher. Despite playing with noted target hound Odell Beckham, Landry has managed to draw a ton of targets himself, and he’s done more with them in his time in Cleveland than Beckham has. With Landry, you’re locking in a floor of 90ish receptions, close to 1,000 yards and about six touchdowns, with an outside chance of a big touchdown season (nine in 2017) or yardage (1,174 last season). I’m not going to call him a Top 15 receiver, but he’s certain to finish better than WR31, which is where he’s being drafted. Value.
Austin Hooper, TE (ADP: 96): I hate to break it to big Austin Hooper fans out there, but this year is probably a bad one to buy in. He had a super-low ADP last season and built on a surprising 2018 campaign with a career-best 75 catches, 787 yards and six touchdowns. The problem is that he’s leaving an offense that threw the ball more than any other team in the NFL (Falcons), and joining a team that attempted the 19th-most, with two well-known target hogs and PFF’s best RB of 2019. Hooper is not an elite speed threat, nor is he a super-athletic red zone option. He’s simply an effective blocking and receiving TE who can easily be lost in the shuffle in this situation. He’s being drafted as the TE11, but I have him ranked a fair bit lower than that. Just wait for an upside TE later on.
Value:
Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 121): Mayfield’s career so far has been a roller coaster, and last year was a steep descent. He threw five fewer touchdowns than his rookie season, and seven more interceptions, while losing almost 30 yards off his per game average. While it’d be difficult for him to be worse, Mayfield’s upside is capped because he doesn’t run. He averaged fewer than two attempts per game on the ground last season, and while he did score three rushing touchdowns, he had zero as a rookie. Mayfield’s talent is real, and although he has great receiving options, the running game should be the focal point. The Browns know this, and coupled with the lack of rushing contributions, the path to Mayfield as a QB1 is unclear.
Deep Sleepers:
David Njoku, TE (ADP: 262): Njoku’s 2019 was a lost season, and while it led to the addition of Hooper, Njoku could still be a factor in 2020 based on his raw athleticism. As a second-year TE he posted 639 yards and four touchdowns, and appeared on the brink of a breakout. Injuries shouldn’t completely kill that for him, and if the Browns run more two-TE sets, that can not only enhance the running game, it could open up opportunity for Njoku to make plays. I’m not drafting him, but he’s a player to pay attention to.