Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Chicago Bears
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Allen Robinson, WR (ADP: 28): Robinson had a very nice 2019 despite some of the worst quarterbacking in the NFL, finishing with 98 receptions, 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns. Despite that, and a potential upgrade at QB from Mitch Trubisky to Nick Foles -- we’ll see who starts Week 1 – this ADP is too rich for my blood, as I expanded on here. While Robinson’s talent isn’t in question, he will still have bad QBs throwing the ball to him, and a healthy Anthony Miller, as well as new TE Jimmy Graham, could chip away at his target share. The injury to RB David Montgomery could force Chicago to rely on the passing game more, but I don’t view Robinson as a clear-cut WR1, which is how he’s being drafted (WR10).
David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 64): Montgomery’s ADP is sure to drop following being carted off the practice field with a groin injury, and this ailment doesn’t help what was already a murky case for fantasy relevance. Basically, Montgomery is the embodiment of “volume is king.” He wasn’t good last year, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, failing to crack even 900 rushing yards, and posting a -13% RB DVOA, the 40th-best in the league. Now we add in a groin injury, and he’s looking like a whole mess. If we get good news about his groin and he’s ready to roll in Week 1 or soon after, then this ADP could be okay, strictly because he saw 242 carries last year and there’s no viable early-down alternative on the team at this point. But even then, you’re just praying on improvement in his game, and not much has changed for this offense from 2019. He’s a stay away.
Tarik Cohen, RB (ADP: 110): Cohen stands to benefit the most from Montgomery’s potentially serious groin injury, even if he is never going to handle a true three-down workload. Cohen is an incredibly explosive player, and he’s a real weapon as a receiver who was underutilized in 2019 in favor of ineffective Montgomery carries. Even in limited chances, Cohen amassed 79 receptions for 456 yards and three touchdowns. He mostly saw lots of dump-offs, screens and short routes and was relied upon to make defenders miss on his own. He needs to see his role grow, with him lining up as a WR even with Montgomery on the field. Before the Montgomery injury, this seemed like a high ADP, but because he won’t see much in the way of rushing attempts, this ADP probably won’t change much. They’ll need to go to him more without Montgomery, so Cohen becomes a value at pick No. 110, especially in full-PPR leagues. Beware of the Bears signing Leonard Fournette though. If he’s in the mix, Cohen’s role will remain shrunken.
Value:
Anthony Miller, WR (ADP: 155): Miller is very talented, but he might just be on the wrong team for fantasy relevance. This is a low-volume passing offense, and that probably won’t change much even if Nick Foles usurps Trubisky for the starting gig. Foles is not a major upgrade, and Miller hasn’t graded out particularly well, giving hope he’s special enough to transcend poor QB play. When you aren’t elite, have bad QBs and are in an offense that doesn’t throw very much, it’s a recipe for a subpar fantasy finish. This ADP is in the lottery ticket range, but there are similar options in better situations available at this point. Sadly, another Bears stay away.
Jimmy Graham, TE (ADP: 169): Graham is being drafted as the TE19, which is another way of saying he’s not being drafted in all leagues. Still, that’s kind of surprising based on what he’s been for years now. He fell off the face of the planet in Green Bay, scoring five touchdowns in the last two seasons with Aaron Rodgers. Before that, he did score 10 touchdowns for the Seahawks in 2017, but he only had 52 receptions and 520 yards that year. Graham, at this point, is wholly touchdown dependent, and he’s joined a team that drafted a TE in the second round, and also signed Demetrius Harris this offseason. TEs like Blake Jarwin, Jack Doyle, Chris Herndon and Greg Olsen are all going behind Graham, and that just doesn’t make sense.
Deep Sleepers:
Nick Foles, QB (ADP: 306): Foles is a Super Bowl winner, and he’s had good seasons. That doesn’t mean I expect anything special here in Chicago. While he’s an upgrade on Trubisky and should be a positive for Bears pass-catchers, he remains an extremely low-end fantasy QB. He hasn’t started more than five games since 2015, and was benched in-season last year for Gardner Minshew after returning from an early injury. He’s saddled with a below-average running game, low-end receiving corps, a corpse at TE and an offensive line in the bottom third of the league in pass protection. Don’t want him.
Mitch Trubisky, QB (ADP: 314): Trubisky is unlikely to start the season under center for the Bears, but if he did, he’d be a preferred fantasy option to Foles because of his rushing ability. He’s rushed for seven touchdowns in three seasons, and has never rushed fewer than three times a game in a season. That rushing floor makes up for his shortcomings as a passer, and also opens up the possibility of blowup games that Foles doesn’t possess. But, he doesn’t help the actual Bears win games, so he’s probably not a factor in fantasy in 2020 without an injury.