Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Indianapolis Colts
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Jonathan Taylor, RB (ADP: 40): Taylor is tough to project as the highest-drafted Colt, because his talent is immense and his situation is prime, except for the pesky veteran RB in the same stable. If he gets a full workload, Taylor is almost a can’t-miss fantasy option. He scored 26 touchdowns as a junior at Wisconsin last season, and received 299 or more carries in all three of his collegiate seasons. He also improved as a pass-catcher in his final season, reeling in 26 catches for 252 yards. He’s as complete a back as you’ll find leaving college, and he’s walking onto a team with a line that averaged 4.41 adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders and 69% power success rate. The only issue here is the presence of Marlon Mack, who we’ll discuss in more detail shortly. Mack put up more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns just last season while missing two games, so it’s a bit unrealistic to think he will simply be shoved aside. So my hesitancy on Taylor at this ADP is solely about being unsure of Mack’s role, especially with this weird training camp and no preseason games. This ADP could be a laughably awesome steal, or a high price for a guy in a frustrating 50/50 time share. Ideally, you’re taking Taylor as a third RB in a RB-heavy strategy and with some flexibility to make trades later in the season.
T.Y. Hilton, WR (ADP: 63): Hilton is severely underrated this season, as I touched on here, because he’s unfairly pegged as someone who can’t be elite without Andrew Luck. The truth is, whenever he hasn’t been catching passes from Luck, he’s been saddled with Matt Hasselbeck, Josh Freeman, Scott Tolzien, Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer. It’s been far from a murderer’s row, and last season before being bitten by the injury bug, Hilton was putting up some strong numbers (30 catches, 306 yards, five touchdowns from Weeks 1-6). Hilton is an excellent receiver who put up monster numbers with an elite QB, and he can put up really good numbers with an above-average QB. Philip Rivers is in town now, and while his elite days are gone, he’s still a nice upgrade on Jacoby Brissett.
Marlon Mack, RB (ADP: 100): Mack has been a consistent and strong RB for the Colts the past two seasons, so it was a bit shocking to see them use a second-rounder on Taylor. Maybe it was just simply too much of a value to pass up, but it threw us fantasy owners for a loop. Pick No. 100 could be a crazy value for a player who can hit 10+ TDs when healthy, and at worst he should be looking at around 40% of the work with some goal line opportunity. He’s probably a better draft value than Taylor, but Taylor’s upside should win out eventually.
Value:
Philip Rivers, QB (ADP: 150): Rivers was pretty rough last season. 4,600 yards is very nice, but 23 touchdowns vs. 20 interceptions is not a pleasant ratio. He’s turning 39 years old during the season too. On the plus side, Rivers, who is completely immobile, will be protected by the seventh-best pass blocking O-line in football last season, and working with a pretty talented corps of pass-catchers. I could see Rivers having a last hurrah as a Top 10 QB, but I’m not banking on it. He’ll open the year as a high-end streamer for me, but if you’re into drafting season-long starters you might want to just invest earlier than pick no. 150.
Deep Sleepers:
Jack Doyle, TE (ADP: 180): Doyle is somewhat appealing because of Rivers’ history with his tight ends on the Chargers, but we’ve already seen Doyle with Luck, and the results were….alright. At his best, Doyle turned a career-high 108 targets into 80 catches, 690 yards and four touchdowns. The reception total is fantastic, but I’m hoping for much more in the rest of his game if I’m trying to nab someone who can be my TE all year long. Indianapolis has a lot of promising young skill players in the mix, so I don’t feel Doyle is anything more than a steady hand for this offense. I can’t say he’s particularly interesting.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR (ADP: 183): Pittman is a big body who showed at USC he can be a monster down the field (18.6 yards per reception in 2018), or a consistent possession receiver and reliable touchdown scorer (12.6 yards per reception in 2019, 11 touchdowns). Pittman’s entering the league with a reputation for dominance on jump balls, and he is reminiscent of fellow former Trojan Mike Williams, who hauled in 10 touchdowns from Rivers just two years ago. With Indy’s strong offensive line and deep RB corps, this could be lower volume than you’d like for a No. 2 receiver, but Pittman is a very nice gamble at this ADP. Rookie WRs are often slow to break out, but his red zone capability could negate his rawness.
Nyheim Hines, RB (ADP: 188): Hines is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and it makes sense why that would be exciting with Rivers at QB. The issue is Taylor’s improvement as a junior at receiving could eliminate Hines from the game plan on third down. RBs drafted as high as Taylor are usually workhorse types, so as good as Hines is, he’s looking like 30-40 receptions at best with almost zero involvement as a rusher. He’s a decent flier in full-PPR formats at this ADP on his talent alone, but I think he’ll have to find a new home to achieve his ceiling.
Parris Campbell, WR (ADP: 212): Campbell is a freak athlete I loved entering 2019, only to see his rookie campaign be wrecked by injury. He’s healthy now, and no less explosive as a playmaker. Pittman fits a traditional No. 2 receiver role more than Campbell does, but Campbell should still be an extremely potent weapon on short targets and gadget plays. If Indianapolis gets creative, they can utilize his speed and power much like the 49ers deployed Deebo Samuel at times. Don’t forget, it was only two years ago he put up 1,093 yards and 12 touchdowns for the Buckeyes. Rivers has always thrown the ball a ton, so someone besides Hilton is going to be fantasy relevant. Both Pittman and Campbell offer very high ceilings at bargain cost.