Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Leonard Fournette, RB (ADP: 37): Fournette’s ADP is confusing to me, because volume reigns supreme in fantasy football, and Fournette is going to be one of the NFL’s most-used backs. There are some analytics that aren’t favorable; he’s never averaged more than 4.3 yards per carry and he graded out 64.0 per PFF, just 47th among qualified RBs. But that would matter more if Jacksonville did anything at all to threaten his status in the backfield, and they didn’t. Fournette rushed 265 times for 1,165 yards last season, the second time in three years he eclipsed 250 carries and 1,000 yards. Even better, Fournette only scored three total touchdowns. That’s absurdly low for that level of usage, and he also scored zero receiving touchdowns despite 76 receptions on the year. Some are of the mind that his usage in the passing game will drop now that Chris Thompson is in the mix, but I don’t buy it.
First, Fournette will still be on the field for all early downs. Second, Thompson has always had a limited role and has never remained healthy. Last, even if Fournette’s receptions and receiving yardage drop, it’s not going to disappear entirely. He also sees enough rushing work that his receiving production is a bonus. Without significant receiving work, Fournette’s ceiling is lowered to around the third round. Guess what, that’s where he is right now! This ADP is pricing him at his floor, when his ceiling is legitimately Top 10 when you factor in his positive TD regression potential.
D.J. Chark, WR (ADP: 55): Chark was a revelation in 2019, catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. He was nobody entering the season, but that was silly of us in retrospect. A 2018 second rounder, he didn’t see much opportunity as a rookie, starting zero games, and physically he looks the part. At 6’4 and nearly 200 lbs., Chark is a prototype WR1, and he showed strong chemistry with Gardner Minshew last season, who is the clear-cut starter entering 2020. PFF graded Chark 26th among qualified receivers, but his overall grade was dragged down a bit for poor blocking. We fantasy owners don’t care about that. His ADP makes sense, and so does him going 22nd at the position. This offense is going to be run-heavy, but their defense should lead to some Chark-friendly game scripts.
Value:
Deep Sleepers:
Gardner Minshew, QB (ADP: 174): It’s easy to brush off Minshew as a nice story, but his numbers are pretty solid. He threw for more than 3,000 yards and put up 21 touchdowns against six interceptions in just 12 starts. He also rushed 4.8 times per game, a solid little rushing floor for the 28th QB off the board. I’m not drafting him in any single-QB leagues, but he’s a safe option for owners punting on their QB2 in two-QB leagues, and a nice matchup play in super FLEX leagues.
Dede Westbrook, WR (ADP: 196): Westbrook had earned some hype entering 2019 as a bit of a PPR darling, and instead turned in a season with identical targets (101) and receptions (66) into 57 fewer yards and two fewer touchdowns. Now he’s watched Chark break out, and the Jaguars select another WR in the second round who figures to infringe upon his playing time. I like Jaguars receivers going later than him, but the truth is Chark is probably the only draftable Jaguars receiver.
Ryqeull Armstead, RB (ADP: 224): Armstead rushed for 3.1 yards per carry on 35 attempts last year. He didn’t show much, but he didn’t have much of a chance either. As long as Fournette’s there, he’s going to be useless for fantasy, but he is the clear handcuff, and Fournette’s never been a model of health. If Fournette were to miss significant time, Armstead would cost a good amount of FAAB, so maybe it’s worth it for Fournette owners to grab him very late.
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR (ADP: 238): Shenault is a big play, big-bodied receiver who looks like the kind of player who can help Minshew a great deal in the red zone. But Shenault’s numbers at Colorado are just not that great. As a junior he put up 764 yards and four touchdowns, and caught 30 fewer passes than he did as a sophomore. He’s clearly got a lot of physical ability, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot in terms of NFL success. There are many receivers worth a lottery ticket pick late, and based on his current situation and college production, Shenault’s not one of them.
Chris Thompson, RB (ADP: 259): For years I’ve been predicting the Chris Thompson breakout, and I’m done having my heart broken. There’s no denying Thompson is fast as hell, and capable of making tremendous plays and helping a team. But he’s simply too brittle to ever be a workhorse back, and receiving touchdowns are necessary for him to make a consistent fantasy impact. He’s never caught 50 passes in a season or rushed for 400 yards. Due to his brittle nature, even if Fournette got hurt, he’s not a viable handcuff. Maybe, maybe he can be stashed in deep, full-PPR leagues, but I’d predict he’ll be on the waiver wire within three weeks.
Chris Conley, WR (ADP: 281): Conley is a big, athletic body with five touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He’s never put it together as a reliable target though, and Shenault seems like he’s very much on Conley’s corner. There is some upside here because of Conley’s athleticism, but this is probably not the offense to help him realize it.