Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Kansas City Chiefs
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 10): The case for Hill at this ADP is simple. He’s arguably the most explosive WR in football, playing in the best offense in football, with the best QB in football. He battled some injuries last season which depressed his stats a bit, but he still put up 58 catches for 860 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games. Hill lags slightly behind other elite receivers in the receptions department, but he makes up for that in yardage (14.8 yards per reception) and game breaking scores (eight touchdowns of 40 or more yards in the last two seasons). Yes, Hill has to compete with some stellar mouths in Kansas City’s offense that all need to be fed, but this offense can support a lot of production. You can feel safe with Hill at this ADP.
Travis Kelce, TE (ADP: 14): Kelce has been the standard bearer at TE for several seasons now, but even though his talent is unquestionable, I rarely feel good about his ADP. Right now, he’s an early second-rounder, and while he’ll give you an advantage every week at TE (unless you’re facing George Kittle), I think the ADP is a bit high. He caught 97 passes for 1,229 yards last season, and that was with Patrick Mahomes missing a bit of time, which probably contributed to his low TD total (five). Realistically, this ADP is fine. Kelce is as consistent as the sun coming up in the morning, and his target share is secure. I just think that his upside is a bit lower than some RBs or WRs going in this range, so I’d prefer to look elsewhere and find my TE a bit later in the draft.
Patrick Mahomes, QB (ADP: 16): Mahomes, like Kelce, is a bona fide stud who gives you a big advantage at the position most weeks. The problem is the position isn’t quite as valuable as RB or WR, so the ADP is tough. Mahomes is a great bet to finish as the QB1 on the year, and moreso than Kelce, his blowup weeks are staggering. Mahomes threw for 4,000+ yards and 26 touchdowns while missing two games in 2019, and it was considered disappointing. His upside is 5,000+ yards and 50 TDs, which we’ve already seen him do. If he does that, No. 16 overall isn’t high enough. Mahomes also has a sneaky high rushing floor, topping 200 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons with two rushing touchdowns in each campaign. Mahomes is bust-proof barring injury, so if you took him at this point you probably will feel fine at season’s end. But he needs to approach his ceiling to be really worthwhile, and turning in a season like he had last year will leave you wanting more. I absolutely love him as a player, but the ADP is too rich for my blood.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (ADP: 23): Edwards-Helaire is one of the big winners of the offseason. He was personally hand-picked by Mahomes during the draft process, and then saw his main competition, Damien Williams, opt out of the season over COVID-19 concerns. That paved the way for Edwards-Helaire, an elusive, shifty back tailor-made for this offense to enter Week 1 with what should be a full workload.
Edwards-Helaire was ridiculous at LSU last season, piling up 1,867 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns. He caught 55 passes as a junior, which has us all drooling in anticipation for what he’ll do in Andy Reid’s system. His ADP is rising and will probably be higher than this by the time you draft. It’s hard to imagine him being a bust with Williams out of the picture.
Value:
Mecole Hardman, WR (ADP: 137): Hardman was expected to be Tyreek Hill last season before Hill was shockingly not suspended. It left Hardman to feed off the scraps this offense had to offer, and truthfully, he gorged. Hardman only caught 26 passes, but thanks to his ridiculous speed he turned them into 538 yards and six touchdowns. I talked up Hardman here, but let’s revisit; he scored five of his six touchdowns in games where he logged two or fewer receptions and posted a 44.1% WR DVOA. Hardman’s main obstacle to fantasy relevance will simply be opportunity. Hill and Kelce are going to monopolize targets for good reason, and Edwards-Helaire is an exciting new toy. But Hardman is simply too good to be underutilized again, and he could erupt as a volatile, but often week-winning WR2 type. I know that at this ADP -- he’s currently the 50th player taken at WR – I’ll happily draft him and hope.
Sammy Watkins, WR (ADP: 149): Watkins is another obstacle to Hardman’s usage, because he’s frustratingly okay. It’s been a long time since we viewed Watkins as a potentially franchise-altering receiver, but in this offense he’s simultaneously disappointing and steady. I’d much rather own Hardman than Watkins, and even if Hill were to get injured, I’d expect Hardman to reap the most benefits. But Watkins certainly is still capable of blowup games, and in a pinch he’s going to see targets (90 targets last season in 14 games). Very boring pick, but not the worst at this point in a draft.
Deep Sleepers:
DeAndre Washington, RB (ADP: 285): Washington has a chance to be the new Damien Williams if Edwards-Helaire stumbles out of the gate or gets hurt. Washington has long struggled to find consistent action with the Raiders, but is a very capable receiving back and averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie. His ADP makes him essentially free, so he’s worth a flier in your last round if you’ve taken the plunge on Edwards-Helaire.
Darwin Thompson, RB (ADP: 295): Thompson wasn’t very good last year in very limited work, but he’s still here and there isn’t a clear-cut handcuff for Edwards-Helaire at this point. I wouldn’t draft him without some significant training camp hype, but because this is such a high-powered offense anyone who could become viable should be mentioned.
DeMarcus Robinson, WR (ADP: 318): Robinson was a waiver wire sensation early last year, but eventually settled into a role as a sometimes-factor in this ridiculous offense. There are way too many mouths to feed for Robinson to be someone you draft, even in 14-team leagues, but if the injury bug bites KC, he could be a WR2 if he gets enough playing time. Robinson is a pretty good player, he’s just buried on the depth chart.
Darrel Williams, RB (ADP: N/A): Williams, another former LSU Tiger, is around and could be the handcuff. At this point, Washington is the safe pick for that role, but you never know. If interested in a KC backup, try to see who is getting the hype leading up to Week 1, but without preseason games it strikes me as a fool’s errand.