Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Houston Texans
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
David Johnson, RB (ADP: 52): I wrote about David Johnson being potentially underrated early in this offseason here, and I still feel that way about him at his current ADP. Johnson has been an elite dual-threat RB in the past, and his fall-off has mostly been about injuries that are not chronic. Last season was a bit of a stunner; he did battle some injuries, but was mostly ineffective when he was on the field, eventually getting benched for Chase Edmonds and buried once the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake. Arizona did not have a good offensive line last season, but the Texans averaged one-one hundredth of a Adjusted Line Yards better than the Cardinals did last year, so the situation isn’t markedly better to the naked eye. Still, Bill O’Brien is a pretty traditional head coach, and he wants to lean on an every-down back. Johnson fits that bill, and he is likely to be the focus of the offense with star receiver DeAndre Hopkins gone. With the volume Johnson will see this season, he’s going to get 1,000 yards and close to 10 touchdowns. You’re skeptical, but Carlos Hyde rushed 245 times for 1,070 yards and six scores. David Johnson is a better player than Carlos Hyde, and Johnson is going to contribute meaningfully in the passing game. I don’t know that Johnson can recapture his No. 1 overall pick prime, but this ADP is a fantastic value for a RB who will see tremendous volume.
Deshaun Watson, QB (ADP: 59): Losing Hopkins took a lot of luster off Watson’s fantasy prospects, but he still should be a strong QB1. Watson lost a star receiver, but he gained a great receiver out of the backfield in Johnson, and also has multiple quality receivers all over the field. Last but not least, Watson has a built in rushing floor that elevates him when he’s shaky through the air. Watson will certainly have games where he’s not connecting with his receivers and his yardage is low, but but he averaged 27.5 rushing yards a game last year and scored seven rushing touchdowns. He’s rushed for 12 touchdowns across the past two seasons, and has never averaged fewer than five rushing attempts per game. It’ll be a bit tough for him to get into the Top 5 QBs without Hopkins, and I’d pass at this ADP, but it’s possible he keeps sinking as draft day approaches.
Will Fuller, WR (ADP: 84): Fuller has been a bit of a tease since entering the NFL. He’s as fast as they come, and capable of devastating defenses on any given play. He should be a popular breakout pick now that Hopkins is vacating so many targets, but none of us can fully trust that we’ll get a full season of Fuller. He hasn’t made it past 11 games in three of his four seasons, nor has he ever caught 50 passes in a season (but he’s been close). Trusting him as a WR2 is asking for pain. On the flip side, he graded as the 26th best receiver in football per PFF, and averaged nearly 14 yards per catch at a 69% catch rate. Fuller is dynamic and scary and he’s probably the Texans receiver you’d most want to own, but be careful if his ADP gets higher than this. If he becomes a locked-in WR2, you’re going to find yourself scrambling at some point this season.
Brandin Cooks, WR (ADP: 91): As discussed here, Cooks has a bit of stink on him because he’s replacing DeAndre Hopkins, and it isn’t really fair. He’s not Hopkins by any stretch of the imagination, but he is a legitimate fantasy WR1 when he plays enough games. Cooks has put up 1,000+ yards in four of his last five seasons, scored at least seven touchdowns in three of the last five, and consistently delivered these numbers while playing for three different teams. While he’s benefitted from playing for Tom Brady and Drew Brees before joining the Rams, a Sean McVay production, he isn’t playing with a slouch in Houston either. I cannot assail Cooks’ ADP based on production. Where I worry is health, as he suffered two concussions in 2019 and has already sustained five known concussions in six seasons. You cannot draft WRs and pray on them not getting hit; Cooks will get hit, and we know for certain he’s at higher risk than others who are going at this range. If he can avoid injury, there’s no doubt he’s a value as the 36th WR off the board, but I’m definitely nervous about losing him for a long time.
Value:
Duke Johnson, RB (ADP: 154): I like Johnson, as I wrote here, and the case is kind of nerdy. At worst, Johnson has been a startable RB2/FLEX in full-PPR formats as he averages 55.8 receptions and 500+ receiving yards a season, and a playable emergency option in other formats. The truth, if you look under the hood, is that Johnson has star potential and is in desperate need of a team to hand him the keys. Johnson has only rushed more than 100 times once, as a rookie, despite a career average of 4.4 yards per carry (4.9 and 5.0 yards per carry last two seasons). He was PFF’s No. 15 back in 2019, and earned a Top 5 rushing grade (82.3), just six-tenths of a point off Ezekiel Elliott’s mark. With numbers like this, Texans coaches cannot keep ignoring what’s plain to see; Duke Johnson is electric, and needs more touches. David Johnson will monopolize touches early, but Johnson is worth a pick at this ADP and a stash. David Johnson could get hurt, in which case Duke Johnson really has no competition at this point. Even without an injury, he’ll definitely see some passing down work and his big plays there will earn a larger role on passing downs at minimum. He’s good enough to be a league-winner, it’s all about how he can worm his way into more work.
Deep Sleepers:
Kenny Stills, WR (ADP: 221): Stills is a talented player, but his production is consistently irrelevant fantasy-wise, and his blowup games are impossible to predict. This is a crowded receiving corps, and even when he’s been elevated by injury, has never been able to capitalize. Stills is just a deep threat who will sometimes explode, but more often than not is going to put up middling or damaging numbers. Ignore him.
Randall Cobb, WR (ADP: 228): Cobb had a bit of a resurgence with Dallas last year, thriving as a third option in the passing game and putting up 55 catches, 828 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll likely man the slot for Houston this year, a team that’s replacing 150 targets that went with Hopkins to Arizona. In shallower leagues, Cobb is not exciting or draft-worthy, but in deeper leagues, especially ones that reward receptions, Cobb could be a sneaky target hound and source of touchdowns.