Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Green Bay Packers
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Davante Adams, WR (ADP: 8): Adams’s numbers dipped in 2019, but it was due to injury. He’s healthy now, and there’s no doubt he remains one of the elite receivers in the NFL, with one of the best of all time getting him the ball. Adams also happens to be the only show in town these days for Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers’ decided to punt on adding any receivers of value to the offense beyond Devin Funchess, who has since opted out of the 2020 season. Adams could easily lead the NFL in targets, and has an excellent opportunity to finish as the WR1 on the year. I’m probably not taking him eighth overall, but there’s no real argument that he doesn’t belong here.
Aaron Jones, RB (ADP: 22): Jones is being drafted as a back-end RB1, meaning there’s some skepticism about how real 2019 was. Jones finished the season with 1,084 yards and 19 total touchdowns. Yes, 19. Typically ridiculous TD numbers like that are a blaring siren for regression, and yeah, he probably isn’t going to flirt with 20 TDs again. But…he could. This offense is devoid of weapons, and Jones can catch the ball; 49 receptions, 474 yards and three touchdowns is big time receiving production, especially when he ceded passing down work a fair amount to Jamaal Williams. Jones could easily see a reduction in TD production and remain an RB1, but this ADP could wind up being a value if he gets in the end zone a bunch again. I love him here, and I have him ranked ahead of this ADP.
Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP: 85): Rodgers was one of the biggest losers of this offseason, as he saw the Packers leave a WR-rich draft with a RB and a TE in the early rounds, and the “top” free agent acquisition for the passing game opt out of the season. Rodgers is one of the greatest of all time, but he’ll be 37 this season, and his passing numbers have been dipping recently. He’s no longer a guy that can just turn anyone into a fantasy relevant player. He remains brilliant, but he needs some help to put up incredible numbers. He simply does not have that help anymore, and the past two seasons are a template for what to expect in 2020. He will be around 4,000 yards and throw for around 25 touchdowns without hurting himself with turnovers. Those are good, but not great, and his rushing floor has vanished. Rodgers used to secretly be a nice rushing QB, but he’s scored three rushing TDs in the last three years and is averaging less than three attempts per game these days. It hurts to say it, but he’s a matchup play nowadays. No way am I drafting him as a QB1, which he currently is (QB11).
Value:
Deep Sleepers:
A.J. Dillon, RB (ADP: 178): Drafting Dillon was a head scratcher, not because he isn’t good, but because Aaron Jones was so good. It seems unlikely that Green Bay wants Jones, who scored 19 times last year, to touch the ball less, and they also still have Jamaal Williams in the fold. Dillon is built like Derrick Henry, and has scored 38 touchdowns in three seasons at Boston College. He’s a bulldozer and should be fantasy relevant if Jones gets hurt, but he’s a pure handcuff right now, and one that won’t see passing downs even if he has a bigger role than anticipated.
Allen Lazard, WR (ADP: 191): Lazard’s numbers last season aren’t great – 35 receptions, 477 yards, three touchdowns – and Rodgers hasn’t supported a WR2 in quite a while, but he should see plenty of volume this year thanks to a lack of in-house competition. He separated himself last year from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Rodgers can’t only throw to Davante Adams. Lazard’s ceiling isn’t super high, but there’s a world where he’s a deep-league FLEX option. As you’re approaching pick No. 200, you could do worse than an Aaron Rodgers target with plenty of opportunity.
Jamaal Williams, RB (ADP: 196): Williams was a bit of a pain for Jones owners last season, scoring six TDs and catching 39 passes. He’s not fantasy relevant without an injury, but he could be the preferred handcuff to A.J. Dillon if Jones goes down. He’ll certainly see all passing down work in that scenario, and may vulture touchdowns too. He’s an underrated real-life player.
Jace Sternberger, TE (ADP: 258): Sternberger did literally nothing of fantasy value last season, but he’s in line to replace Jimmy Graham, who saw 60 targets in 2019 and scored three touchdowns. Given the advanced stage that Graham is at in his career, Sternberger might be able to do something with those looks. In fact, he could see even more looks due to Green Bay’s thin receiving corps. Obviously, no one is drafting him, but he’s worth monitoring in the early going.