Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Detroit Lions
Must Own = Top 120
Value : 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Kenny Golladay, WR (ADP: 25): Golladay put up 69 catches for more than 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns, announcing himself as an elite WR in the NFL and doing it without the luxury of QB Matthew Stafford after Week 9. He graded out as the No. 17 WR on PFF while spending half the season making lemonade out of two lemons, Jeff Driskel and David Blough. He was inside the Top 10 in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and 13th in WR DVOA. In short, Golladay is a total stud, and he could move into the Top 5 if the Lions’ offense operates in similar fashion and get an entire year out of Stafford, who was having one of the best seasons of his career. This is a fine ADP for Golladay, and yes, he can return value on it even though it’s Top 25.
D’Andre Swift, RB (ADP: 65): Swift is in a very similar situation to Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. Both were potential first rounders, both dominated college, and both enter situations with an established veteran in front of them. Swift is going 25 picks later than Taylor, however, when his path to playing time is a bit clearer. Unlike in Indianapolis, where Taylor is trying to wrest control of the backfield from a solid veteran in Mack, Swift is battling an injury prone incumbent who had a glaring, likely fatal (for fantasy value) weakness. As noted here, Johnson proved incapable of scoring touchdowns despite control of the Detroit backfield. Johnson was the lead back last season but got hurt and attempted just 113 rushes, the second time in two years he failed to get to 120. He also rushed for just three touchdowns in both injury-shortened campaigns. Suddenly, despite Johnson’s electric talent, spending a second-rounder on Swift makes sense. At Georgia Swift topped 1,000 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons, and eclipsed 1,400 yards from scrimmage, proving passing game chops. He’s ready to walk into a full workload for Detroit; the only remaining question is whether they’re ready to relegate Johnson to a backup role.
Marvin Jones, WR (ADP: 96): Jones has long been an underrated player, but I’m still hesitant to draft him any earlier than this ADP. His year-end numbers tend to look great, but he accumulates them in very inconsistent fashion. Big plays will occur, and he has gotten to nine touchdowns twice; Jones makes a ton of sense as an RB2 for owners who go heavy-RB early, or burn an early pick on a QB or TE. But beware that the big plays also come with droughts, and that he’s missed nine games in the past two years. He is not a high-end WR2 despite how tempting he may be, so make sure if you go for him you aren’t reaching.
Matthew Stafford, QB (ADP: 99): Stafford is currently going 13th at the position, meaning he’s not a QB1 on average. This doesn’t make sense to me. Last season he was on a tear, throwing for 2,499 yards and 19 touchdowns against just five picks in eight games. He had a down year in 2018, but prior to that had thrown for 4,200+ yards in seven consecutive seasons. Even with Swift in tow, the Lions are a pass-happy squad. Stafford has attempted at least 555 passes in eight straight seasons and was well on his way last year too. With Kenny Golladay entering his prime and Marvin Jones remaining a downfield threat, that’s not changing. He won’t contribute on the ground, so that accounts for some of the ADP ding, but he’s behind Aaron Rodgers by 14 picks. That’s pure name value nonsense, and if you’re paying attention Stafford is a much safer pick.
Kerryon Johnson, RB (ADP: 104): Johnson was covered for the most part in D’Andre Swift’s section, but let’s not completely bury a good RB. As a rookie Johnson was legit, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and winning over the coaching staff to the point they discarded veteran LeGarrette Blount and turned the backfield over to him. Should Swift get injured, Johnson could provide tremendous value on this ADP, but he comes with his own injury risk and bad performance in 2019. This is a perfect ADP for Johnson that builds in the risk, but beware drafting him here and neglecting RB depth. There’s a strong chance Kerryon winds up nothing more than a big-name handcuff.
Value:
T.J. Hockenson, TE (ADP: 134): Hockenson was a promising rookie out of Iowa, but last season did not go well. He went off in Week 1 against the Cardinals, who were abysmal all season against TEs, and caused a lot of people to waste a lot of FAAB dollars. He smoked the Cardinals for six receptions, 131 yards and a touchdown, and finished the year with 32 catches, 367 yards and two touchdowns. Yikes. Hockenson remains a very athletic and dangerous weapon, and rookie TEs rarely are fantasy relevant anyway. I don’t hate the ADP, but I also don’t love it. The talent is there, but he’s a distant third option in the passing game, and there are other young TEs who will be bigger factors in their respective offenses. It’s just fine.
Deep Sleepers:
Danny Amendola, WR (ADP: 273): Amendola is barely a factor in full-PPR leagues, but he’ll have a role on this team and he’s consistently been around 60 catches a season for three years running. That role could become fantasy relevant if Marvin Jones or Golladay miss significant time, so he’s worth mentioning. Amendola has never been a touchdown threat, but he’s a superior route runner and incredibly crafty and experienced working out of the slot.