Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Denver Broncos
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Melvin Gordon, RB (ADP: 38): Gordon is currently the 18th RB off the board, and in my humble opinion, he could wind up as one of the bigger busts in fantasy this season. Gordon has scored 47 touchdowns in the last four years, and that’s been his primary source of value. He did all that damage as part of high-powered Chargers’ offenses, where he had an All-Pro QB who dumped the ball off to him a ton, and where he received more volume than almost any other RB in football. The thing is, Gordon has rarely ever been an efficient back. He’s averaged more than four yards per carry just once in his career, and rushed for 1,000 yards just once, in 2017. In no other season has Gordon even gotten to 900 rushing yards. Even last season, he ended his holdout as a conquering hero and finished the season graded as PFF’s No. 41 RB. He’s now in Denver, where they had a Top 12 offensive line last season, but they also stocked up on weaponry in the passing game. They also have a very capable back, Phillip Lindsay, already in place. Gordon was paid and so he’s going to lead the time share, but if he doesn’t see the volume he’s accustomed to with all these skill players to feed, Gordon isn’t making up the difference in efficiency. I’m treating him as a middle-tier RB2, and this ADP feels high.
Courtland Sutton, WR (ADP: 44): Sutton is not like Gordon. He certainly made the most of his targets last season, breaking out for 1,112 yards and six touchdowns while catching passes from Joe Flacco and rookie Drew Lock. Drew Lock’s development could decide whether or not Sutton leaps into elite WR territory on the stat sheet, but PFF says he’s there already. He graded 83.1, good for 10th at the position, and also led the NFL in defensive pass interference penalties drawn (eight) and pass interference yardage (150). Sutton could very well be a Top 10 receiver this season with solid QB play, but because Lock is the man, this ADP builds in appropriate risk.
Phillip Lindsay, RB (ADP: 93): It was painful for me to see the Broncos pay Gordon, because I knew it’d be at the expense of Lindsay, one of my favorite RBs in football. Lindsay, undrafted in 2018, has rushed for more than 1,000 yards twice already in his career. That’s once more than Gordon has. Lindsay averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season, and 4.9 for his career, a mark Gordon has never hit. He’s also caught 35 passes in back-to-back seasons; Gordon’s a better pass catcher, but Lindsay is a better playmaker once the ball is in his hands. Lindsay’s fatal flaw is that he’s a bad pass-blocker, so bringing in some help on passing downs did make sense, even if it clips his fantasy upside. But bringing in a whole three-down back to relegate Lindsay to the lesser half of a committee is a shame. I would not be surprised if Lindsay ousts Gordon over time by simply outplaying him, but who knows if you’ll be able to hold him long enough for that. Right now, he looks like a brand-name handcuff, so this ADP is too high. With that said, he has the talent to be a league-winner if he manages to get the playing time he deserves.
Jerry Jeudy, WR (ADP: 108): Some considered Jeudy the top WR prospect in a historically deep WR class, but he fell to third WR taken. The Broncos are thrilled, because he’s exactly what Drew Lock needed. Jeudy enters the league a polished route runner, but he’ll be much more than a possession receiver getting first downs. Jeudy can do it all, and he put up more than 1,100 yards in back-to-back seasons at Alabama while scoring 24 touchdowns. Rookie WRs sometimes struggle in Year 1 to acclimate to the NFL level, but Jeudy is as prepared as anyone that’s come through in a while. The questions for him will be Denver’s passing volume, and Lock’s development.
Noah Fant, TE (ADP: 116): Fant wasn’t very consistent as a rookie, but he did flash major breakout potential and put together a strong first campaign. He finished 2019 with 40 catches, 562 yards and three touchdowns, but he posted two huge games that showed his Evan Engram-esque upside. Twice he erupted for more than 100 receiving yards and a touchdown, and he had three and four receptions, respectively, in those blowups. Fant will be a Top 5 TE if he gets enough volume, but that’s unlikely in this offense. Fant can do serious damage with limited work though. What should worry us is what is his floor in the games he’s not going off? TE13 isn’t a bad spot for him, but his inconsistency makes me think I’m holding off on draft day.
Value:
Drew Lock, QB (ADP: 160): Denver has handed him the keys, and surrounded him with major talent, but the jury’s still out on whether Lock is all that good. He went 4-1 as the starter, which is impressive, but he only averaged 204.7 yards per game and 31.2 attempts. He rushed for 72 yards on the season, so he doesn’t have a particularly high rushing floor either. It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out, because for all these Broncos to have high ADPs, Lock, in theory, should be higher if he’s supporting the majority of them. But fantasy owners are apparently hungry for Sutton, Gordon and Jeudy without any love for the guy slinging it. I’m with them; I’m not a believer yet in Lock, and I think QB24 makes perfect sense.
Deep Sleepers:
K.J. Hamler, WR (ADP: 284): Hamler is a bit of an afterthought here, but he’s a second round pick with blazing speed who did well at Penn State for two seasons. Last season he put up nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns for the Nittany Lions, and averaged 16.9 yards per reception across two seasons. His path to playing time is crowded, but he is an intriguing pick for dynasty owners because of his downfield ability paired with Lock’s huge arm.