Fantasy Football Team Previews: Miami Dolphins
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
DeVante Parker, WR (ADP: 62): After four seasons of disappointment, Parker lived up to his first round hype and likely boosted most owners who picked him up off waivers into their playoffs. Parker caught 72 passes for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns, good for 16.7 yards per catch. But was it real? Football Outsiders says Parker had a Top 20 WR DVOA (14.9%) and PFF graded him inside the Top 20 as well. He showed a Brandon Marshall-esque connection with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is widely expected to enter 2020 as the starter. In that scenario, I’d expect Parker to continue as a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside, even if the skill players around him have been upgraded. The question is what if rookie Tua Tagovailoa takes over and snuffs out the Fitzmagic?
There’s no way to know, but Tagovailoa was considered a generational talent ahead of this draft, and only fell because he badly injured his hip last season. He’s healthy, and touted as an extremely accurate passer. None of that is bad news, and no WR on the team is threatening Parker’s status. Parker is currently the 26th WR off the board and it really doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. He’s a definite value.
Matt Breida, RB (ADP: 93): Breida and this backfield have been discussed to death by me this offseason, in most depth here, but Breida stands out to me as one of the biggest potential values in fantasy this year. He’s always put up big stats for the 49ers in limited opportunities, but hasn’t ever had a backfield to himself. He doesn’t here either, but he’s more versatile and explosive than Jordan Howard and offers Miami a bigger playmaker. He could have the lesser end of the timeshare to start, so the ADP isn’t exactly the greatest, but it’s a relatively cheap investment for a potential starting RB. And before you laugh off both as lowly Dolphins rushers, this is a team that’s on the upswing, that improved its defense and offensive line a lot this offseason.
Jordan Howard, RB (ADP: 94): Howard is going one pick after Breida, signaling that none of us know how this will shake out. Unlike Breida, Howard has been a bell cow in his career. In fact, prior to last season, Howard had logged at least 250 rushing attempts in three straight seasons, and scored nine touchdowns in back-to-back years. When given the volume, Howard is a fantasy asset plain and simple. Based on that, this is a nice ADP. The problem is that we could see a repeat of his one season with the Eagles (2019); Howard performed nicely, but unspectacularly, and eventually was overtaken by Miles Sanders, a younger home run hitter. Howard is a bit of a plodder, and offers very little value as a receiver, limiting his fantasy upside, as well as making his offense a bit predictable. If he stays healthy he’ll probably receive goal line work, potentially deep-sixing the upside for both guys, but I’d prefer to take the shot on Breida’s ceiling at this point in a draft.
Mike Gesicki, TE (ADP: 116): Gesicki’s stock is rising, and it should be. He is a monster athletically, and flashed last season with 51 catches, 570 yards and five touchdowns. Entering his third season, it’s an important one for him as a young-ish TE, as this is around the time they start becoming stars if that’s in the cards. He finished exceptionally strong, scoring three touchdowns in Miami’s final two games and posted 23 grabs, 276 yards and five TDs from Week 11 on. Parker is the dominant pass-catcher in what could be a run-heavy offense, but their defensive woes created a situation where the Dolphins finished Top 7 in pass attempts. If that repeats, Gesicki is going to score a lot more touchdowns in 2020 and return value on his current TE13 status.
Value:
Preston Williams, WR (ADP: 156): Williams was an awesome story before getting hurt last year. An undrafted free agent, he built buzz in the preseason and was delivering on it as a starter, catching 32 passes for 428 yards and three touchdowns in eight games. He was drawing a lot of targets from Fitzpatrick, and he’s set to see a ton more as fellow receivers Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have opted out of the 2020 season. The heavy targets were deserved. Williams recorded 1,345 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final collegiate season and burned all 32 teams for passing on him on draft day in 2019. As a receiver barely being taken inside the Top 60 at his position, it seems he has a new group of people disrespecting him to set straight – all fantasy owners.
Deep Sleepers:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (ADP: 250): Fitzpatrick seemed like he was surprisingly good last season, but he really wasn’t. He threw 20 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, while rushing for a weirdly impressive 243 yards and four touchdowns. Don’t count on that again. Fitz is a certified streaming darling, but you’d be silly to invest a draft pick in him. He’s simply not consistent enough to be relied upon week-in and week-out, and he has Tua hanging over him.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB (ADP: 228): No one knows what to do with Tagovailoa. He was a clear-cut No. 1 overall pick before last season, and played like it until he broke his hip and Joe Burrow broke records. Suddenly, Tua was falling to No. 5 and he might have to sit out the season. He’s healthy right now, and while sitting him may be prudent, if the Dolphins start slow it’s going to be hard to keep this horse in the stable. Tua threw 76 touchdowns against nine picks in his last two college seasons, and took over as a freshman in the middle of a National Championship game and led Alabama to victory. He is a special, special player and if he takes over the gig, it’s hard to believe he won’t be fantasy relevant. With that said, he’s not draftable at this time. You’ll have to keep tabs, and I wouldn’t be afraid to spend a few FAAB bucks if he is named the starter. He’ll have an instant impact whenever he’s called upon.