Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Minnesota Vikings

Must Own = Top 120

Value = 121-170

Deep Sleeper = 171 or later

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros

Must Own:

Dalvin Cook, RB (ADP: 7): Cook’s potential holdout is a thing of the past, yet his ADP hasn’t risen to where I believe it belongs. He’ proven to be a bit injury prone in his first three NFL seasons, but when he is on the field he more than holds his own against the elites like Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffery and Ezekiel Elliott. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry or more through each of his first three campaigns, and in 2019 he actually made it through 14 games. Fantasy owners were rewarded with 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns in those 14 games, and there’s room for positive regression. Cook is a true dual threat back who recorded 52 receptions on the season, but somehow did not score any receiving touchdowns. Cook is a beast, and there’s an argument for him in the Top 3.

Adam Thielen, WR (ADP: 29): Thielen was a big old bust last year due to injury, but one thing he continued to do was score touchdowns. Despite notching just 30 receptions on the year, Thielen still hit pay dirt six times. Coming off a 113-catch, 1,300+-yard season, we all expected more but this ADP proves that the fantasy community remembers. The Vikings offense looks different now without Stefon Diggs, and it means extra defensive eyes on Thielen moving forward. It also means an increased target share for him, which is important because passing targets in this offense are rare and precious. Thielen is probably not a high-end WR1, but there’s back-end WR1 upside here, with touchdowns making up for a potentially disappointing catch total. The ADP here is probably proper value, but I’d like to get him a smidge later in an ideal world.

Alexander Mattison, RB (ADP: 111): Mattison is an excellent running back. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, amassed 462 yards on 100 attempts and caught 10 passes for 82 yards. He graded a hair outside PFF’s Top 25, posting a comparable grade to fantasy second-rounder Kenyan Drake. And none of this means Mattison has standalone value. He’s stuck behind Cook, a true three-down back in every sense of the word. But he is the most important handcuff in fantasy, and any Cook owner who does not also lock up Mattison is making a big mistake. This ADP is not an accident, because he’d be a Top 15 back if he had the workhorse role, and Cook’s injury history means he could get that role at some point in 2020.

Value:

Kirk Cousins, QB (ADP: 146): Cousins is a good quarterback. He’s not great, he’s not bad, he’s pretty good. When given enough opportunity, like he was in 2018 (606 pass attempts), he can be a massive asset for fantasy. Like 30 touchdowns, 4,298 yards. The problem is that the Vikings are most successful when Dalvin Cook is the focal point of the offense, and Cousins is asked to manage the game and make plays when necessary, but not shoulder the big load. In that scenario, we see a line like last year’s, when he threw for 3,603 yards and 26 touchdowns. Respectable, yes, but far from exciting for fantasy owners. There is a Top 10 QB in there if the Vikings unleash him, but outside of a meltdown of this defense Cousins is merely a matchup play. He’s the 20th QB off the board, and that’s about right.

Justin Jefferson, WR (ADP: 147): Diggs being gone could be a blow to this offense, but Jefferson is very capable of blunting the impact. Taken in the first round, Jefferson is possibly my favorite rookie receiver for fantasy in 2020. Other receivers had a bit more hype, and some appear like they may have more opportunity right away, but Jefferson’s college stats blow away the competition. He caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns last year for one of the best offenses in the history of college football. Jefferson was surrounded by superior talent and was being thrown to by Joe Burrow, the first overall pick in this draft, but those numbers in the SEC are impressive regardless of your supporting cast. Speaking of opportunity, it’d be a shock if Jefferson wasn’t starting for the Vikings, giving him just as much opportunity as guys like Jalen Reagor or CeeDee Lamb. Rookie WRs are usually very hit or miss commodities, but if you’re going to gamble, you want to do so when you know targets are coming. Even though Minnesota threw the third-fewest passes in football last season, Jefferson has enough talent to make his targets count.

Kyle Rudolph, TE (ADP: 184): Rudolph’s level of play is consistent, but it goes hand-in-hand with the offense’s pace. When the Vikings’ passing volume dropped off, Rudolph felt it, going from 64 to 39 receptions, 634 to 347 yards while managing to add two touchdowns from the previous season. He was always fairly touchdown dependent, and while Diggs isn’t there anymore, the passing volume leads me to believe Rudolph’s descent will continue. He also has increased competition at his own position, where there’s a deep sleeper I’d draft ahead of him. Rudolph is the 23rd TE off the board, which is appropriate. He won’t be on any of my teams.

Deep Sleepers:

Irv Smith Jr., TE (ADP: 187): Smith, a second round pick in last year’s draft, didn’t knock anyone’s socks off with 36 catches, 311 yards and two touchdowns, but those are damn solid numbers for a rookie TE. But he flashed his athleticism, and is a pure pass-catcher whereas Rudolph is more of a blocking/receiving hybrid. The Vikings are likely to run two tight ends quite a bit due to their run-heavy focus and lack of quality receiving talent, which means Smith is going to run a lot of routes. I won’t predict a breakout here, but if he can get enough targets he has a better chance of winding up a TE1 than Rudolph does.