Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: Los Angeles Chargers
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP: 22): Ekeler was an RB1 last season, which happened in spite of Melvin Gordon ending his holdout four weeks into the year. He scored 11 total touchdowns in 2019 and piled up 1,550 yards from scrimmage, proving there are multiple paths to the RB1 kingdom in the process. Ekeler was not a traditional RB1, as he only amassed 557 rushing yards on 132 attempts. Ekeler caught 92 passes for 993 yards though, and put up eight touchdowns through the air. With Gordon gone, Ekeler’s massive increase in touches should remain intact, as he’s the clear top guy in the backfield. With that said, this ADP is too high for me to consider Ekeler.
First, this ADP builds in a leap in rushing attempts I do not believe is coming. Gordon led the team in rushing attempts (162) by 30, and the Chargers have a capable backup in Justin Jackson and spent draft capital on rookie Joshua Kelley. Second, Philip Rivers, a QB known for heavily targeting his RBs, is gone and replaced by Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is much more of a deep thrower, and in the past Taylor offenses are simply much more run-heavy. Lastly, Ekeler’s previous high in touchdowns was six. The jump to 11 makes some sense based on how many more touches he saw, but with Taylor running the show he’s going to see less passing volume, and the team is going to be lower scoring. All of this adds up to a RB who should be very good, but has a lot of red flags at a borderline Top 20 ADP. Be careful.
Keenan Allen, WR (ADP: 49): Allen has been a model of consistency at the position, scoring six touchdowns in each of the last three years and topping 1,100 yards in every season during that span. As talented as he is though, the switch from Rivers to Taylor is worrisome. The Chargers’ offense is going to go through a necessary sea change with Taylor at the helm, otherwise this offense won’t succeed. That’s going to mean lower passing volume, and, unfortunately fewer opportunities for Allen to get to those benchmarks. Like Ekeler, Allen’s talent isn’t in question. His opportunity is, though, and I think there are better shots to take at this ADP. He should stay consistent, but at a lower level, and one that will leave you wanting more if you’re comparing him to other WR1s and high-end WR2s.
Hunter Henry, TE (ADP: 66): Henry, unlike Allen and Ekeler, is less reliant on volume for his production. Henry is a fairly touchdown-dependent TE, but he’s delivered them consistently when he’s been healthy. His role isn’t going to change much with Taylor on the field, and he’ll continue to be a primary focus when the Chargers are in the red zone. This ADP is absolutely fine, and you’ll be happy with Henry for as long as he’s on the field. It’s worth nothing that he hasn’t played 16 games yet in a season though, so expect to work the waivers at some point to fill in a few missing games.
Mike Williams, WR (ADP: 120): Williams did a ton with less last season. While Allen and Ekeler hogged targets, Williams put up 1,001 yards on 40 receptions. Not a typo. Williams led the NFL in yards per reception (20.4), but still has a crappy ADP because he scored only two touchdowns. This production is nothing new; in 2018 Williams put up 664 yards on only 43 receptions, but found the end zone 10 times. The touchdown regression potential was clear, and it came hard. Now, Williams will be catching the rock from Taylor, who is a surprisingly adept deep thrower. The volume should be about the same for Williams, but even if he just gets to five or six touchdowns, he’ll be a week-winning receiver at times and return serious value on this ADP.
Value:
Deep Sleepers:
Justin Jackson, RB (ADP: 195): Jackson is just being completely overlooked, to my dismay. I’ve touched on Jackson here, but it’s worth repeating what I said at the top. Melvin Gordon led the team in carries with 162 attempts, and Ekeler is a receiving back. That’s a lot of work vacated by Gordon, and Jackson has always excelled in limited work. Jackson averaged a respectable 4.1 yards per carry as a rookie, and that leapt to 6.9 per attempt in 2019 on 29 rushes. Jackson has never toted the rock more than 50 times in a season, so the ceiling is probably capped because he hasn’t ever received such a big workload. But Jackson could very well see a lot of early down opportunities, as well as goal line attempts. He’s always been efficient when given a chance, so it only makes sense the Chargers would expand his opportunity. Jackson will prove to be among the biggest values of the season for fantasy owners, and is a must-own handcuff in my opinion who will have fantasy relevant standalone value.
Joshua Kelley, RB (ADP: 245): Kelley is a power runner who scored double-digit touchdowns in back-to-back seasons at UCLA, and he’s got a bit of buzz as a possible TD vulture for the Chargers. I’m not buying it, mostly because I’m bullish on Jackson’s potential, so I would recommend leaving Kelley on the waiver wire come draft day and just keeping an eye on him in the early going. Should he be out-touching Jackson, he’d be worth a pickup as a handcuff to Ekeler, but Jackson is the preferred option.
Tyrod Taylor, QB (ADP: 248): Taylor is not a super appealing fantasy QB because he has topped out at around 3,000 passing yards in his time as a starter, and has never thrown for more than 20 touchdowns. He’s being a bit underrated as a rusher though; as a starter from 2015-2017 for the Bills, Taylor averaged 36 rushing yards per game and scored 14 rushing touchdowns, numbers that establish a pretty high floor. Taylor will also have the best weapons of his career at his disposal, so if he starts off hot and can stay in the saddle all season, it’s not hard to picture him having his best NFL season. I think it makes sense to spend your last pick on him if you want to punt QB, and ride the rushing work in the early going in hopes he can stave off rookie Justin Herbert. If the Chargers are winning, you never know. Right now he’s the 32nd QB off the board, a.k.a. the one of the worst starting QBs in fantasy. With his rushing floor, that’s hard to believe.
Justin Herbert, QB (ADP: 300): Herbert put up huge numbers at Oregon, but they’ve got to be taken with a grain of salt as PAC-12 numbers can sometimes be inflated. He has NFL-ready tools, but he has drawn skepticism because of his decision making and inaccuracy. Those are not drawbacks you want to see from a potential franchise QB, and he won’t have a chance to prove anyone wrong in preseason action. Herbert isn’t draftable in non-dynasty formats because he isn’t opening the season as the starter, and truthfully he could be a turnover machine in Year 1. Zero interest in Herbert in 2020.