Fantasy Football Team Previews 2020: New England Patriots
Must Own = Top 120
Value = 121-170
Deep Sleeper = 171 or later
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros
Must Own:
Sony Michel, RB (ADP: 84): It’s shocking to see Michel as the highest-drafted fantasy asset on a team that’s been so dominant for so long, but here we are. Michel is not a player I am a big fan of entering 2020, and that was before he was placed on the PUP. He was wildly disappointing last season, failing to crack 1,000 yards despite more than 200 carries, contributing virtually zero to the Patriots and fantasy teams as a pass-catcher, and scoring seven touchdowns so haphazardly that you almost definitely benefitted from none of them. Still, the Patriots’ backfield still has his name at the top, and, in theory, he should lead the team in carries. That’s worth something, especially with Cam Newton as QB opening up running lanes as running QBs tend to do.
If you’re looking deeper to find some support for Michel in the advanced measurements, good luck. He graded as the No. 39 RB by PFF, where he earned an abysmal 48.3 grade as a receiver. His inability to catch the ball makes New England predictable when he’s on the field, and I truly think that Bill Belichick is going to move away from him because of this. As you’ll see, there’s no shortage of options in this backfield, and the supposed volume that’s driving this ADP has a high probability of evaporating.
Julian Edelman, WR (ADP: 88): Edelman is going four spots behind Michel, but I’d much rather have him on my team. Edelman’s ADP plummeted when Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay, but the absence of Brady didn’t affect Edelman’s position as the best receiver on the team by a mile. Since then, the Patriots smartly signed Cam Newton, who isn’t anywhere near as accurate a passer as Brady, but has supported the fantasy relevance of worse WRs in the past. Edelman’s getting older and he’s dealt with injuries at points during all of the last five years, but he put up his best season ever in 2019, when the Patriots’ offense was at its least potent. His reception numbers and targets will probably dip with Newton at the helm, as he’s never been a volume passer, but we could very well see him set a career-high in touchdowns. He’s certainly a value as the 35th WR off the board.
James White, RB (ADP: 105): White is the RB to own in the Pats backfield. He’s not often utilized as a runner, but targets are worth more than carries, and target hounds at this position are fun to own. Last season White was a disappointment of sorts – he lost six total touchdowns from his 2018 total – but his usage wasn’t all that different. He still caught 72 passes for 675 yards and five touchdowns. While he won’t have Brady peppering him anymore, we’ve seen Newton utilize a RB out of the backfield as a receiver before. Heard of Christian McCaffery? White is arguably the second-best pass-catcher on the team, so he’ll see plenty of targets in 2020. He also scored five rushing touchdowns on 95 carries in 2018, so don’t be surprised if he sees an uptick in attempts while lining up next to Cam. I don’t think White’s a league winner, but I do think he’s a value.
Value:
N’Keal Harry, WR (ADP: 140): Harry put up 12 receptions, 105 yards and two touchdowns last season as a first round bust. His ADP shows that fantasy owners aren’t ready to trust him, and it makes sense. What have they seen at the NFL level? The good news is that New England hasn’t gone out and signed any impact receivers, signaling they’re good with what they already have. Harry has plenty of upside, and did deal with injuries that slowed his development in a notoriously complex offensive scheme. We’d love to see some preseason games, but just perusing the depth chart reveals major opportunity available for Harry to make his mark. This ADP makes Harry extremely low risk, so I don’t hate drafting him here. Having Newton here makes a lot of Patriots options much more palatable.
Cam Newton, QB (ADP: 171): Newton is currently the 26th QB off the board, which is wild to me. We fantasy owners love our QBs to have major rushing potential, and Newton has as much as any QB not named Lamar Jackson (or probably Kyler Murray). Injuries have slowed Newton for a while now, but in his underrated career Cam has rushed for 488 yards or more in every season besides 2019. Excluding 2019, he’s never rushed for fewer than four touchdowns, and he topped out at 10 in 2015. Based on the Patriots’ receiving weapons and the inefficiency of Michel around the goal line, expect Cam to get a lot of opportunities when the Patriots are near the end zone. With that kind of rushing floor, you can easily get away with his passing yardage being below 4,000 yards and sub-30 passing TD total. The days of Cam being a Top 5 QB are probably over, but he should still be a Top 10 guy. We’re drafting more than 100 picks earlier, and I’m not entirely sure why.
Deep Sleepers:
Damien Harris, RB (ADP: 193): Harris’ ADP has climbed out of the 200 range, likely because people are realizing that Michel was atrocious last season and has degenerative knees. There aren’t any stats to speak of at the NFL level, so any optimism for him is purely projection, but his college production shows a two-way threat that could be a workhorse for this offense. He amassed more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage for three years at Alabama despite receiving the lesser half of a timeshare with Josh Jacobs. As a senior, he caught 22 passes for 204 yards. Playing with him on early downs allows the Patriots to operate without the defense knowing for sure whether they will run or pass; this seems extremely elementary, but makes a gigantic difference.
Mohamed Sanu, WR (ADP: 263): Sanu has always been on teams with one or two dominant WRs in front of him, so when New England gave away a second round pick to pry him from the Falcons, it seemed like they knew something we didn’t. Seeing Sanu as a nominal WR1 was….underwhelming. He caught 26 passes for 207 yards and one touchdown for the Pats in eight games. He’s still here, and might have some touchdown upside, but this should be a lower-volume passing offense with Edelman dominating target share and Harry possessing more upside. This ADP is fine, as I’m not interested in taking a stab at him.
Rex Burkhead, RB (ADP: 268): Burkhead shouldn’t be in any fantasy conversations, but the truth is he was relevant in random games. I’m not drafting him even if Michel remains on the PUP because I’d take the shot on Harris, who was drafted in the second round. But if Michel isn’t ready for Week 1 it’s not completely insane to pick up Burkhead as a lottery ticket because they trust him near the goal line.