On The Move: Breaking Down Stefon Diggs On the Bills
Many fantasy relevant players have changed teams this offseason, and I’m here to talk about how that will affect them in 2020. Today we’ll talk about WR Stefon Diggs, the biggest offseason addition of the Buffalo Bills.
Diggs is an extremely talented, but wildly inconsistent fantasy asset. In 2018 he set the world on fire, catching 102 passes for 1,021 yards and nine touchdowns. Last season, he actually posted a career-high 1,130 yards but caught 49 fewer passes and three fewer touchdowns. Prior to last season, Diggs was the type of receiver to catch shorter targets (7.9 yards per target prior to 2019) and use his incredible elusiveness to do damage. Last season was different; his yards per target leapt to 12, and he averaged 17.9 yards per reception as the clear No. 1 target for much of the season (Adam Thielen was often hurt). Some of the reason for hesitation with Diggs this season is that he’s headed to the Bills, a run-heavy team without an accurate QB. Kirk Cousins is definitely a more accurate passer than Josh Allen, but the Vikings last season threw the third-fewest passes in the NFL. Diggs can be a Top 10 receiver with enough volume, but he does not require elite volume to be a devastating fantasy asset.
Despite not being a big receiver, Diggs has scored at least six touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. He has surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in back-to-back campaigns in a run-dominant scheme, and he finished seventh in the NFL in receiver DVOA. When evaluating Diggs in his new digs, you need not worry about him. The quarterback situation is what will determine his success. Allen is a far more desired fantasy QB than Cousins, but his effect on his WRs could be drastic.
Cousins ranked 10th in QB DVOA against Allen, who ranked 28th. He graded out sixth per PFF.com, while Allen graded 30th. Cousins’ effective yards were about 200 yards more than what he threw for in 2019, while Allen’s were a whopping 352 yards fewer. Lastly, the Bills finished 2019 as the 23rd best passing offense in football, while Minnesota checked in at 10th. The volume wasn’t necessarily there, but the efficiency was. That is where Diggs might see a fall-off. Allen is a playmaker for sure, but he is not a consistently excellent vessel for delivering the ball to his pass-catchers. He’s known to have a cannon for an arm, but he only averaged 6.7 air yards per attempt in 2019, when Diggs proved he could badly hurt opposing defenses deep.
Ultimately, the move to Buffalo is likely a downgrade, even though he’s the clear No. 1 there as opposed to sharing the title with Thielen in Minnesota. While that should ensure a better target share, his quality of target will sink, and he will continue to be inconsistent. Diggs will likely win you some weeks, but the likelihood of multiple duds has gone up as well. His current ADP of No. 57 overall, and 22nd at WR is about right.