Fantasy Assets On The Move: Breaking Down DeAndre Hopkins on the Cardinals

Many fantasy relevant players have changed teams this offseason, and I’m here to talk about how that will affect them in 2020. The first player to talk about is Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, arguably the biggest name to switch uniforms.

Hopkins has been elite for years now, and he’s currently the No. 11 player off the board. His talent will never be in question, but it is noteworthy that in leaving the Texans, he leaves one of the best QBs in football (Deshaun Watson) and an offense that has fed him 150+ targets for five consecutive seasons. Typically, that’s cause for concern for a wide receiver, and it’s reflected somewhat in this ADP; he remains a first rounder on average, but he’s going after Michael Thomas Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. I think this is a mistake.

Adams and Hill are no doubt great wide receivers, but Hopkins has consistently been great, is much less reliant on touchdowns than Adams, and isn’t competing for targets in Arizona any less than Hill is in Kansas City. Yes, Hopkins leaves Watson who hyper-targeted him. He is also entering an offense led by a No. 1 overall pick, Kyler Murray, who may well hyper target him in an even more dynamic offense. Arizona finished 2019 as the No. 7 offense in the NFL per Football Outsiders based on their Weighted Offense metric, and that was with Murray as a rookie with one of the NFL’s six-worst offensive lines in pass protection and no running game to speak of until Week 7. They did this by giving RB Kenyan Drake the ball more than Miami ever did, and spreading the ball around to Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald and Any Isabella. The sky is the limit when you throw Hopkins into the pot, and I have no trouble envisioning Hopkins swallowing up a ton of the targets that were going to that decent-but-nothing-special trio.

We’ve never seen Hopkins in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, so I can’t speculate with anything useful. But Hopkins’ resume is sparkling. He’s topped 100 receptions in three of the last five seasons, topped 1,100 yards four times, 1,500 yards twice and scored double-digit touchdowns three times. He received an 88.1 receiving grade from PFF, coming in fifth in the NFL in 2019 and fourth in the NFL in Effective Yards. Kirk and Fitzgerald are not threats to his target share, and he may have a high-end running game in place in Arizona to keep defenses from game planning fully to stop him. That sounds silly, but Arizona ranked second in the NFL in rushing offense and 20th in passing offense. Drake’s addition to this team turned them into a very frightening operation, and he’s still there. Trying to stop him and Hopkins is not going to be an easy task for opposing defenses.

If you’re scared of Hopkins leaving his star QB and heavy target share, don’t be. He’s going to remain a hyper-targeted receiver, and he can only be helped by a dominant running game. Kyler Murray isn’t Deshaun Watson yet, but he could get there in a hurry. Hopkins is in a great situation, and fantasy owners should draft him as such.