Fantasy Football 2020 Rankings: 5 Biggest Bust Potential Players

Anyone can be a bust because of injury, but sometimes players just aren’t as good as their draft stock would lead you to believe. Below are five players who have some warning signs right now that should tip you off to look elsewhere on draft day at these ADPs.

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears (ADP: 27)

Robinson finished 2019 with 98 catches, 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns despite catching passes from Mitch Trubisky and Chase Daniel. That is impressive. In fact, it’s so impressive that it’s leading to him being overdrafted this season. Part of the reason for Robinson’s gaudy output was tremendous target share. Even though he had awful QBs throwing his way, 154 targets is a lot of work. I’m expecting that to go down a bit. The Bears have third-year WR Anthony Miller healthy, and added Ted Ginn and TE Jimmy Graham to the mix, as well as rookie TE Cole Kmet. None of these guys are great, but they could all chip into his target share enough to lower his ceiling. Graham and Kmet could specifically eat into Robinson’s TD total if they draw red zone targets.

Robinson was also, quietly, a bit underwhelming based on DVOA. He posted a 0.4% DVOA in the NFL’s No. 25 offense based on weighted DVOA. Chicago traded for Nick Foles this offseason to potentially improve on that, but Foles has hardly been a model of consistent excellence in the NFL. Robinson is still stuck in a run-first offense with mediocre to terrible options at QB, and with more threats to his target share in place. He is still the clear WR1 for this team, but he does not have the ceiling to be the No. 10 WR off the board. Yes, he once ripped off a 1,400-yard, 14-TD season with Blake Bortles under center but that was in 2015.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos (ADP: 34)

Gordon’s holdout was one of the major storylines of 2019, and when he finally returned to the Chargers’ offense, he was less a knight in shining armor, and more of an impediment to Austin Ekeler’s touches. Gordon averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and rushed for 612 yards and eight touchdowns across 11 games. The touchdown numbers are what we’ve come to expect from Gordon, who was a goal line stud in a high-powered offense. But he isn’t in that offense anymore, and many of his other numbers are alarming.

The 3.8 yards per carry are the norm for Gordon, not the outlier. In 2018 he rushed for 5.1 yards per carry, and it was the only time in his career he was over four. Gordon can’t be that kind of plodder for Denver, where they have a fan favorite in Phillip Lindsay who was averaging 4.5 yards a pop last season. Gordon finished 2019 with an ugly -7.5% DVOA, and now finds himself in an offense that has invested heavily in pass-catchers; Courtland Sutton, rookie Jerry Jeudy, TE Noah Fant, and even rookie WR KJ Hamler could create a pass-happy environment for QB Drew Lock, with Gordon averaging something like 13-14 touches per game rather than 18-20. If Gordon’s touches go down he may end up being completely touchdown-dependent, as we’ve seen he’s not a particularly efficient runner. And again, remember he’s going to cede at least some work to Lindsay. Per PFF.com Lindsay is a horrendous pass blocker, so Gordon is a safe bet for passing downs, but there’s potential for him to give way to Lindsay for entire series. With Gordon, you are betting on the role. His pass-catching chops, and Lindsay’s struggles in pass protection give the impression Denver brought in Gordon to serve as a three-down guy. However, Lindsay is too explosive to simply leave on the bench. These two could very easily split early down work right down the middle and even if Gordon earns the vast majority of goal line work, that kind of split would make this ADP difficult to justify.

Sony Michel, RB, Patriots (ADP: 82)

Michel’s ADP has begun to rise because of the addition of QB Cam Newton, and what premier rushing QBs generally mean for RBs and a team’s running game in general. The problem is that Michel may already be toast, and he has a lot of competition in his own backfield. Michel is known to have degenerative knee issues and rushed for an ugly 3.7 yards per carry last year. Michel started 14 games last season, but barely got to more than 900 rushing yards on the season. Even worse, he was invisible in the passing game, drawing just 20 targets all season. He scored seven touchdowns, but even ceded work in that regard at times to Rex Burkhead, who is still on the team. Newton will have a positive effect on the Patriots’ running game for sure, but New England has a 2019 third-round pick, Damien Harris, waiting in the wings with three-down potential. Bill Belichick could turn to Harris as the early-down back to add an element of unpredictability that Michel does not currently offer; Harris caught 22 passes in his final season at Alabama, but his numbers were depressed there by sharing the backfield with Josh Jacobs. Sure, Michel’s ADP isn’t crazy high, but there’s a world in which Michel is simply not fit to be owned in fantasy at all. That’s an incredibly low floor, and his ceiling isn’t as high as we’d like.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers (ADP: 89)

Gronkowski was covered here, but it’s worth revisiting as his ADP rises. Fantasy owners are falling for the name, and I get it. But fantasy owners NEED to remember that the last time we saw Gronk – with Tom Brady, mind you – he caught 47 passes for just 682 yards and three touchdowns. He was very bad, especially for the draft capital fantasy owners had to invest at that time. Obviously, he’s just the TE11 these days so missing on Gronk isn’t as much of a killer. Still, drafting him means you are passing on Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson and Jonnu Smith, among others, all of whom have the upside of becoming upper tier TEs. Gronk might have big TD upside, but he’s a clear No. 3 option behind WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Additionally, if the Buccaneers do go 12 personnel, Gronk will lose some looks to fellow TE O.J. Howard. Again, the name value is sexy, but TE is deceptively deep, and the younger options have much more room to explode.

Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles (ADP: 90):

At one point Wentz was likely to win a real life MVP, and was a dominant fantasy QB. Then he got hurt, and Nick Foles won a Super Bowl in his place. Since then, Wentz has been fine, but never reached his old heights. This year fantasy owners are clinging to that 2017 run, but his situation is not favorable. Wentz has a stud RB at his disposal in Miles Sanders, and a very weak receiving corps which could force Philly to lean on the run. Outside of TEs Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffery could begin the season on the PUP list, DeSean Jackson is 34 years old and injury prone, and rookie Jalen Reagor might not be ready to contribute right away.

Wentz may not have elite passing volume, and he’s not much of a contributor on the ground. Last season was also the first time since 2016 that Wentz made it through 16 games. Matthew Stafford is going to throw much more than Wentz, and Daniel Jones will run a ton more. Why not roll the dice with those guys?