On The Move: Breaking Down Brandin Cooks On The Texans

Many fantasy relevant players have changed teams this offseason, and I’m here to talk about how that will affect them in 2020. Today we’ll talk about WR Brandin Cooks, the man stepping into the large void left by DeAndre Hopkins.

I have spent most of this offseason feeling negatively about Cooks’ prospects on the Texans, mostly because of his recent concussion history. Unlike knees, shoulders or any other type of injury football players sustain, head injuries, particularly for receivers who are often defenseless when they’re hit, are the most alarming. We can often predict recovery times for other injuries, or work off basic timetables for return when they occur. Concussions, however, become more likely the more frequently they happen, and recovery varies wildly. Cooks had two just last season, and has suffered five in his six NFL seasons. This is the main reason for my skepticism on Cooks, but wasn’t the only one.

When he’s on the field, Cooks is a bona fide stud. From 2015 through 2018, Cooks racked up more than 1,000 yards in every season, never caught fewer than 65 passes, and was below seven touchdowns only once (five in 2018). He also maintained this consistency while playing for three different teams. The flip side though is one of my initial arguments against him. Yes, he was a fantasy asset for multiple teams, proving his adaptability, but he was catching passes from Hall of Fame passers in New Orleans (Drew Brees) and New England (Tom Brady). In 2018 he didn’t have that caliber of QB (Jared Goff), but he did have a role in one of the most dominant offenses in recent memory. Deshaun Watson is certainly no slouch, but the Texans don’t have the firepower of the 2018 Rams, and he’s not on the level of Brees or Brady as a passer.

Cooks is entering an offense that ranked 18th in Weighted Offense, and 16th in passing offense. Those are downgrades from his previous stops, but not awful. Watson isn’t prime Brees or Brady, but he did grade 12th among all NFL QBs last season as a passer per PFF, and he put up 3,798 Effective Yards as opposed to the actual 3,580 yards he threw for. Additionally, while Cooks is in another crowded receiving corps, he should be No. 1 pass-catcher in this offense and lead the team in targets. These are facts, and it complicates the perception of him entering 2020. When healthy, he is a very good, and at times elite option at wide receiver. He has done it in multiple offenses, different schemes, and despite being a smaller pass-catcher proven to be adept at scoring from anywhere on the field.

If Cooks remains healthy in 2020, he will definitely outperform his No. 90 overall ADP. As it stands, even with his injury risk, he is something of a value as the 36th WR taken in half-PPR drafts. If you can get him around this ADP, I do not think it to be unwise. I, however, am unlikely to wind up with Cooks based on his awful concussion history. While I’ve softened on him overall, and do feel he will be a bonus if he can stay upright, I don’t want to cringe every week with him in my lineup praying he doesn’t take a big shot. Conversely, I believe Will Fuller is the real value in the Houston offense as he’d become the de facto WR1 if Cooks misses time.