Ryan Tannehill Is The Late QB Likeliest To Finish Top 10
Ryan Tannehill was one of the surprises of 2019, taking over for Marcus Mariota in Week 6 and helming a Titans offense that made it to the playoffs, and eventually the AFC Championship. His current ADP is No. 139 overall, the 18th QB off the board. It seems that despite the big contract he landed this offseason, the fantasy community isn’t a believer in his arrival. That’s fair, but of the QBs going in this range, Tannehill stands out as having the ability to ascend into the elite tier.
Tannehill averaged just 228.5 yards per game, but still offered consistent value by taking care of the football, throwing 22 touchdowns against six interceptions, and running the ball. Tannehill quietly gained 185 yards and the ground and scored four touchdowns. And while he wasn’t a prolific passer, he was able to post big games, topping 300 yards three times, and throwing for three touchdowns three times. He dined out on his efficiency, posting a 7.7 TD%, second in the NFL behind only MVP Lamar Jackson. The counting stats are totally there, but his efficiency was incredible in 2019 and several metrics suggest he was for real.
Tannehill’s 90.3 offensive grade per PFF tied him for third in the league with Patrick Mahomes, trailing only Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. His DVOA (28%) per Football Outsiders ranked fifth, ahead of Dak Prescott and Wilson, and his effective yards outpaced his actual production by 116 yards. We’ve also seen glimmers of an elite QB from Tannehill in the past. He threw for more than 4,000 yards in both 2014 and 2015, tossing 27 and 24 touchdowns, respectively, while being picked off 12 times in each season. He fell off in 2016 before being injured, but his decline coincided with Adam Gase taking over as head coach. There’s been a recent trend of offensive players blossoming once out from under Gase – DeVante Parker and Kenyan Drake support the theory – although the efficiency is new for Tannehill.
He’s also benefitting from the best running game he’s ever had. Derrick Henry is the focal point of the offense and his presence forces defenses to allocate their entire focus to containing him. That leaves Tannehill free to work with less complex looks in the secondary with high-end receivers. WR A.J. Brown is a star in the making, and in 2020 he’ll get a full season of Jonnu Smith as the primary TE. He also still has Corey Davis, a former Top 10 pick who hasn’t broken out, and Adam Humphries in tow. Those weapons working against skeleton secondaries are a recipe for him to maintain his efficiency, and he can hurt teams on the ground.
In fact, Tennessee, on occasion, calls direct runs for him because he’s good enough and physically able to withstand the hits near the goal line. I am not predicting a Top 10 finish for Tannehill, but if I’m waiting on the position he has a better chance of finishing as a QB1 than anyone in his range.