Raheem Mostert Is Possibly The Best Value In Fantasy Football By Early ADP

Raheem Mostert, at 28 years old, has broken out. If you’re skeptical that he’s suddenly an elite fantasy option, you aren’t alone. Despite being the starting RB for one of the NFL’s most dominant rushing teams from 2019, Mostert’s ADP currently sits at No. 63 overall, and 26th among RBs. For context, that’s almost a full round after rookie Jonathan Taylor, and an actual full round after David Johnson, whom we’ve mocked all offseason for being the prize in a trade that involved DeAndre Hopkins.

The reasons are obvious; he has viable competition in Tevin Coleman, and he’s never logged more than the 137 carries he got last season. In fact, prior to his breakout, Mostert’s career-high for rushing attempts was just 34 in 2017. However, whenever Mostert runs the rock, no matter how few times, he chews up yardage like his life depends on it. Mostert’s career yards per carry sits at an even six, and last season he averaged 5.6 on 8.6 attempts per game. Despite starting zero games, Mostert led the 49ers in touchdowns (10) and rushing yards. In fact, he carried the ball exactly as many times as Coleman did and gained 772 yards on the ground compared with Coleman’s 544. Mostert piled up 180 receiving yards too, the same number as Coleman on fewer receptions. The trend here is obvious; Mostert did much more than Coleman with less opportunity, and should be line for a big increase in workload.

It’s fair to wonder, however, if this was purely a mirage created by San Francisco’s scheme and offensive line. Well, the scheme is the same, as they haven’t fired head coach Kyle Shanahan, and the offensive line was good, not great, per Football Outsiders. Much of San Francisco’s rushing success came on the back of it’s running backs, particularly Mostert.

Additionally, Matt Breida was traded this offseason, clearing out an additional 123 carries for Mostert and Coleman. If the 49ers look at stats, more of them will go to Mostert than Coleman.

There’s more to support his bid as a high-end fantasy starter beyond traditional counting stats and assumptions about workload. Mostert led all RBs with at least 100 rushing attempts with a 26.8% DVOA, while Coleman ranked third-worst at -15.6%. He was seventh in the NFL in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, ranking ahead of the likes of Nick Chubb and Chris Carson. He graded sixth per PFF at the position, but some of the players in front of him thrived in very small sample sizes (Justin Jackson, Taiwan Jones, Tony Pollard). His run grade – 83.3 – puts him at 3rd in the NFL per PFF, and he was a strong pass blocker (60.9), meaning a three-down role could be in the cards. Coleman is a name, but his performance by advanced metrics was very underwhelming.

Mostert’s current ADP is depressed by concerns about Coleman, and a lack of track record that he can sustain a lead back’s work. But by every metric and stat, Mostert was an upper tier rusher last season and he’s likely to walk into even more opportunity in 2020. This strikes me as a huge value, as Mostert might have a real chance to be a Top 5-type back. He is one of my favorite  early buys.