A.J. Green's ADP Is Dropping, Why Have We Forgotten An Elite WR?

The answer to the question posed in the headline is simple. We’ve forgotten about A.J. Green because he’s played in nine games in the last two seasons. But does it make sense to discount Green as much as we have? He’s going No. 66 overall, and barely inside the Top 30 at the position. With an offensive-minded coach entering his second season, the No. 1 overall pick in 2020 helming the offense, and a well-stocked corps of skill players in the fold, Green may be a tremendous value.

Green missed all of 2019 with a foot injury, and likely frustrated fantasy owners who drafted him and held onto him because of misleading updates throughout the year. But in 2018, before he got hurt, he looked very much like the elite receiver he’s always been. He had 694 yards and six touchdowns through nine games, averaging 77.1 yards per game and 15.1 yards per reception. That 15.1 yard per reception mark was the highest it’s been since 2015, and was tied for his second-highest ever.

Green has never put up fewer than 1,000 receiving yards in a season in which he’s played more than 10 games, and has just one season with fewer than six touchdowns (he played 10 games).

Green has definitely benefitted from his partnership with QB Andy Dalton. He’s been hyper-targeted by Dalton since his rookie season, and he’s now missed a season and is returning to a new signal-caller. Most have the expectation that Joe Burrow will be a better QB than Dalton – I certainly do – but that does not mean he’s better for Green’s fantasy value. Burrow has Tyler Boyd in the slot, rookie Tee Higgins, an explosive talent, as well as a big body in Auden Tate who emerged last season thanks to injuries. Green also has an elite RB in the mix in Joe Mixon, who may be the focal point of the offense with a rookie under center. Still, part of the reason that Green drew so many targets is that when healthy, he’s pretty much uncoverable. So whether it’s Dalton or Burrow throwing the passes, Green will probably be open, and probably lead the team in targets.

2018 saw Green receive 77 targets, the only time he’s ever been thrown to fewer than 100 times. There’s virtually no way Green doesn’t finish the season as a Top 15-20 WR if he can get to 100 targets, so if you assume health Green’s ADP is lowkey ludicrous.