Low Risk High Reward Players Based On ADP
Draft values can come from any draft position, and in any round. Today though, we’ll look at some players who offer value in the most traditional sense: low ADP, high upside.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles (ADP: 152)
Speed demons in their 30s aren’t typically appealing fantasy assets, but DeSean Jackson could be the exception that proves the rule in 2020. For starters, he remains very fast. At age 32, he was on his way to being a big value in 2019 before injuries robbed him of the majority of his season. Reunited with the Eagles, Jackson caught nine of his 10 targets across three games, averaging a healthy 17.7 yards per catch and scoring twice. Jackson has never been a PPR type, but his style of play is still the type that can win weeks. He’s eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards five times, and at his peak he posted 82 receptions, 1,332 yards and nine touchdowns. He won’t do that, but with Alshon Jeffery still nursing injuries and being a mess himself, D-Jax is the No. 1 receiving threat for Carson Wentz. Rookie Jalen Reagor may end up leading the wide receivers in targets, but Jackson will see several game-breaking opportunities per week. If he’s healthy, he’s a surprisingly safe bet to be useful and his ADP is that of a fringe FLEX option.
Eric Ebron, TE, Steelers (ADP: 163)
Ebron has been maddening for most of his career, and it’s safe to assume he’s never going to hit the ceiling his Top 10 overall draft capital implied. But Ebron is someone we’ve seen thrive in the right situation. When paired with Andrew Luck, Ebron caught 66 passes for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns.13! That season looks like a major outlier – he’s never had more than five touchdowns in any other season – but he’s also either been on bad Lions teams, or stuck with non-Luck QBs in Indianapolis. Now, he’s back with a high-volume, veteran QB (Ben Roethlisberger) who makes use of his tight ends. From 2015-2018, the tight end has ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th and 3rd on the team in targets and Ebron is easily the highest-profile tight end the team’s had since Heath Miller in 2015. Also, all of these Pittsburgh teams had Le’Veon Bell, one of the top pass-catching RBs in NFL history and Antonio Brown, an all-time great WR soaking up targets. Ebron is entering an offense where he will be among the team leaders in targets, and could find himself flirting with double-digit touchdowns. As the No. 18 tight end off the board, he’s essentially free.
Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers (ADP: 169)
I’ve covered my excitement for Jackson earlier this offseason here, but it bears repeating. Jackson is criminally underrated right now because Austin Ekeler is ranked so high. Ekeler is absolutely the main back for the Chargers, but the rankings are ignoring that Melvin Gordon returned from his holdout and had 162 carries as well as 55 targets in the passing game. Gordon’s now in Denver, and Ekeler, as talented as he is, only logged 132 carries last season in 16 games. Ekeler is not going to suddenly carry the ball 200+ times like a prototypical RB1, and he no longer has prolific dump off passer Philip Rivers there either. Maybe Justin Herbert takes over at some point, but he’s starting the year with Tyrod Taylor.
Meanwhile, all Jackson’s done is chew up yardage with scary efficiency any time he’s given a chance. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry as a rookie, and 6.9 yards per attempt last season. Jackson is in line to absorb a big chunk of Gordon’s workload, and he could force his way into an equal timeshare with Ekeler while vulturing goal line opportunity. That’s a high-end RB2 ceiling at pick No. 175.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Chargers (ADP: 238)
Taylor is likely to open the season as the Chargers’ starter, and while that could be a negative for several key members of the Chargers’ offense, Taylor has the potential to be a steady fantasy option. Rushing numbers can significantly raise the floor for fantasy QBs, or push them into elite territory. Taylor has never amassed the kind of passing numbers that could be considered elite, but he has as much rushing capability as any QB in football not named Lamar Jackson. In 2015 as the starter for the Bills, Taylor averaged 40.6 yards per game on the ground, and from 2015-2017 he averaged 6.4 rushing attempts per game. During his time with Buffalo, Taylor was competent from a passing standpoint. He hit the 3,000-yard mark twice, and never threw more than six interceptions. Taylor was a disaster in 2019, however, as the Browns QB. He completed fewer than 50% of his pass attempts through four games before being injured and losing the job to Baker Mayfield.
The limited passing yardage should be offset by Taylor frequently picking up chunks of yardage on the ground, and his ability as a deep passer should give him opportunities to pad his stats with weapons like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams operating downfield. He also has an elite red zone option in TE Hunter Henry, and a premier receiving back in Austin Ekeler. He’s set up to succeed, with his rushing capability pushing him into potential back-end QB1 territory. The rub, though, is rookie Justin Herbert waiting in the wings to steal the gig. Taylor needs to be good right away, because he probably has a short leash.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots (ADP: 217)
Harris, a third round pick in 2019, did basically nothing. There was optimism for him based on his skill set, but he never saw the field, stuck behind prolific pass-catching back James White, and a combo of Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead. All those players remain in New England’s backfield, so why would anyone be interested in Harris in 2020?
Well, his talent hasn’t disappeared. He was a home run threat at Alabama, eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards as a sophomore and junior and scoring nine touchdowns as a senior despite sharing the workload with first-round pick Josh Jacobs, currently the starter for the Raiders. He averaged more than seven yards per carry in his two 1,000-yard seasons, and vastly improved on his receiving stats as a senior. Those receiving chops are what excited folks last year, as he projected to be a potential three-down back in the Patriots’ prolific offense. That offense is no longer expected to be prolific now that Tom Brady is being replaced by a total unknown in Jarrett Stidham. This new era though could force Bill Belichick to find more playmakers rather than rely on more limited weapons to just play certain roles. Harris is more versatile than any of the other backs on this team save for Burkhead, and he’s far more explosive than Burkhead.
Lastly, Harris could overtake Michel’s early down/goal line role strictly based off Michel’s performance last season. Michel fell from 4.5 yards per carry in 2018 to 3.7 last season, gained 19 fewer yards on 38 more carries, and was a non-factor as a receiver. All it would take is some big plays early for Harris to stake a claim to some work, and it likely wouldn’t be difficult to outperform Michel if given a chance. That’s a lot of potential value for a player who is largely going undrafted.