High Risk High Reward Players Based on ADP

Are you feeling lucky? Sometimes we want to be daredevils, and bet on our favorite players to excel, value be damned. The five players below are all players capable of being stars on fantasy championship squads, but they’re being drafted at a point that if they aren’t they’ll be busts. So we’ll break down just how risky they are.

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 30)

While it’s not unheard of for rookie RBs to be among the most impactful fantasy assets in any given season, the hype on Edwards-Helaire may be a bit overstated in 2020, and it’s not necessarily his fault. The Chiefs invested a first round pick in him, and his skill set is believed to be a perfect match for Andy Reid’s offense. Statistically, his output at LSU was exciting. He amassed more than 1,800 yards from scrimmage, rushed for more than 1,400 yards, and caught 55 passes for the top offense in college football. The receiving ability in particular is what has fantasy owners salivating, as everyone is hoping for KC to lean on him as they once did Kareem Hunt.

The problem is veteran Damien Williams; while Williams has been around for quite a while, and mostly underwhelmed, he replaced Hunt admirably in 2018 and was a stud during KC’s 2019 Super Bowl run. Even worse, Williams’ primary value to this offense is as a receiver out of the backfield. There’s no doubt Edwards-Helaire will see a healthy workload, but with Williams likely opening the season as a starter, we don’t know how the work will be shared, or if the rookie will ever see a full three-down role this season. If the three-down role doesn’t happen quickly, you’ve sank a third round pick into a rookie in a timeshare. I believe in the fit and the talent for sure, but in redraft leagues a Top 30 pick seems too steep for the role he currently has.

A.J. Brown, WR, Titans (ADP: 36)

Brown is one of my favorite players for fantasy this season, but even as an A.J. Brown stan I cannot deny the risk. He’s currently being drafted as a third rounder in 12-team leagues despite totaling just 52 receptions in 2019. He’ll be the undisputed WR1 for Tennessee this season, with a full year of Ryan Tannehill under center, but that’s for a team that attempted the second-fewest passes in the NFL. Nothing has fundamentally changed either; Derrick Henry is still the team’s focal point, and the coaching staff is the same one that got this team to the AFC Championship. Still, the Titans didn’t unlock Brown until nearly half the season was gone. Brown never saw more than five targets until Week 7, and wasn’t on the field for 70% of the snaps until Week 10. Egregious. From Week 10 on, Brown averaged 3.7 receptions and 88.9 yards per game while scoring five times. From Weeks 13-16 he never dipped below 79% of the snaps, and averaged 4.5 receptions, 106.3 yards and a touchdown per game, and that stretch included a one-reception dud. Brown might be the top dog in a super run-heavy offense, but his talent is so ridiculous that he can put up WR1 numbers with less attempts. As long as Brown is dominating the target share, he can wreak havoc, and Henry’s presence ensures that defenses can scheme to stop him. It might be scary to rely on someone with a target ceiling as a WR1, but if he can consistently see 5-7 targets per week that’s more than enough.

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks (ADP: 37)

Metcalf’s ADP is through the roof right now, because his game is similar to Brown’s. He’s a physical freak who can do a ton with less targets than other big name receivers require. He also has Russell Wilson at QB, a big step up from Tannehill. He finished his rookie season with 58 catches, 900 yards and seven touchdowns; that’s very similar to Brown’s 52 receptions, 1,085 yards and eight scores. The problem for Metcalf is that while they both reside in run-heavy offenses, Brown is the clear-cut first option. Metcalf has to compete with Tyler Lockett, an All-Pro caliber receiver who has crazy chemistry with Wilson. He’s currently being drafted as a high-end WR2 because most fantasy owners are thinking he’s going to build on that impressive rookie campaign. While he has the talent to do so, this offense is a successful one, and his 2020 season may be more of the same. That’s not so bad, but you want more from a Top 40 pick. I’d be happy to have Metcalf on my teams, but this is too early for my taste.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (ADP: 76)

Rodgers is 36 years old. It doesn’t really feel like it, but he is. And he’s being drafted right now based on our memories of how great he used to be for fantasy. Rodgers is still one of the best QBs in football, but as far as fantasy goes this is a very high-risk ADP. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 30 touchdowns in three seasons, and he made 16 starts in each of his last two. He still posts immaculate INT totals, and he surpassed 4,000 yards last season, but that yardage is misleading. He lit up the Eagles in Week 4 for 442 yards, and eviscerated the Raiders for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Rodgers put up fewer than 210 yards six times, and fewer than 200 yards twice. Those declining passing numbers also come with a drop in his rushing totals, which once helped separate him from the others in his elite territory. Rodgers doesn’t stand out in that regard anymore and it makes sense, he’s 36. The offense is now much more about riding RB Aaron Jones and having Rodgers complement that approach.

Lastly, I’ll admit that Rodgers still has “it,” and if he were relied upon to carry the offense he’d be a fantasy stud. But that’s not his role, and the Packers refuse to even give him adequate weaponry. Davante Adams is his only reliable receiver, and in a draft considered historically loaded at the position, they drafted zero receivers. He’ll go to war with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard and Devin Funchess as secondary options. You excited?! He’s currently going ahead of Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, both of whom have vastly outperformed him the past two seasons. While Rodgers has shown in the past he’s capable of being QB1, it’s a real reach based on what we’ve seen for a solid three seasons now.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Buccaneers (ADP: 90)

Gronkowski is going 11th at his position, and while that’s not all that risky the issue I see is getting off Gronk if he sucks. Gronk is a big name with a ton of positive history, and even doubters can talk themselves into thinking he can at least be a touchdown hound. He’s got his man Tom Brady under center, and defenses have to worry about Chris Godwin and Mike Evans before they dedicate energy to stopping him. The sell here is Brady finding him often in the red zone. It’s a cool narrative for sure, but that might still be asking too much.

Gronk was completely out of football last season, has lost tons of weight, and was really not very good in his final season with the Patriots in 2018. He played 11 games, catching 47 balls for 682 yards and three touchdowns. He had seven games with fewer than 50 yards receiving, and that was without competing with two elite receivers for target share. None of this is to knock Gronk down, he’s simply taken tons of punishment over the years and even in 2018 he looked broken down. It’s difficult to imagine he can return from that in a new offense and suddenly return to form. If we’re getting 2018 Gronk – which is the best we can realistically expect – I’d rather have a chance at a breakout from the likes of Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst or Mike Gesicki, all of whom are currently going behind Gronk.