Fantasy Football Breakouts: Hayden Hurst's Opportunity Can Create A TE1

Tight end is a position that many fantasy owners are unenthusiastic about, but the truth is it’s littered with players who have exciting potential. Who thought Austin Hooper would emerge as an upper tier option? This year, Hayden Hurst is lurking as the No. 14 TE off the board, despite him stepping right into the role Hooper vacated this offseason.

Hurst, a former first round pick, has been a bust in his first two seasons. After being taken in Round 1 in 2018, he’s only recorded 43 career receptions and three touchdowns while being outplayed and usurped by Mark Andrews. But what if we’re unfairly penalizing Hurst for his draft stock, and not acknowledging that Andrews is simply an elite TE? Hurst was the 12th-ranked TE per PFF, ahead of big names like Zach Ertz and Jonnu Smith. He earned a 77.3 grade as a receiver, and ranked fourth in DVOA according to Football Outsiders among all TEs with at least 25 passes.

He also posted 408 “effective yards,” as opposed to the 349 yards he actually finished the season with. That was a bunch of numbers that essentially say, Hurst is better than he’s shown so far, and he played better than the stats would indicate.

Part of Hurst’s struggle was usage. Rookie TEs rarely make an impact, and he has spent his career in a particularly run-heavy environment. Before Lamar Jackson evolved into a superstar, he was one of the worst pure passers in the NFL. In Year 2, as Jackson improved, Hurst was overtaken by Andrews. Now, Hurst is heading to Atlanta where the Falcons led the NFL in pass attempts last season. The Falcons have a high-end QB in Matt Ryan, and a defense that lends itself to high scoring and lots of passing. Hooper benefited from this, drawing 97 targets, second-most on the team. Hooper tied with Julio Jones for second-most receiving touchdowns (6), and caught 75 balls. This is all great news for Hurst, who is a better athlete than Hooper and won’t have WR Mohamed Sanu stealing target share. Hurst averaged a full yard more per target than Hooper, and nearly a full yard more per target.

It’s possible that the Falcons passing volume dips a bit now that they’ve added RB Todd Gurley, but unless they make huge strides defensively, game script is always going to favor throwing the football. Also, this is a team built to pass; Julio Jones is dominant, and Calvin Ridley’s target share could rise as well, but both of those players create excellent opportunities for Hurst. Matt Ryan looked Hooper’s way often in the red zone, and that is likely going to hold true for Hurst. We do not have much to go on statistically for him, but the talent of Hurst and his opportunity could make him a strong TE1.