Fantasy Football Breakouts: Justin Jackson's Time Has Come
Justin Jackson had some buzz entering last season with Melvin Gordon in a prolonged holdout, and he was expected to see a big jump in work splitting with Austin Ekeler. Instead, Ekeler broke out as a Top 10 running back, and Jackson finished the season with 29 carries. Now Gordon is gone, but the Chargers spent a fourth round pick on UCLA RB Joshua Kelley, casting Jackson’s 2020 role into further doubt. Drafting Jackson is undoubtedly risky, but there is reason to think he could be primed for fantasy relevance.
For starters, Jackson averaged 6.9 yards per carry. Of course, it’s hard to glean much from 29 rushing attempts, and he only had 50 in 2018 as a rookie, but he’s at 5.1 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons. He also caught nine of his 11 targets out of the backfield for 22 yards and has a career catch percentage of 80%. But those numbers don’t say much, and his limited exposure means using other means to measure how good he was.
Per Football Outsiders, Jackson posted a 34.9% DVOA, tops among RBs with fewer than 100 carries, and he graded out at 89.5 as a runner according to PFF.
That grade was second in the NFL behind only Nick Chubb, and he graded out at 74.4 as a receiver. Jackson is clearly a talented back who has simply been blocked, and now Gordon is out of the picture entirely. The big knock on Jackson is his pass-blocking; he graded out at 25.7 in that metric, and is not going to be an option for the Chargers on passing downs. For 2020 though, that’s irrelevant because those downs belong to Ekeler anyway. For this season, we’re looking at Jackson strictly as an early-down back who gives the team flexibility because he can still be targeted as a receiver on those early downs.
The next factor is workload. Assuming Jackson earns early-down work, what does that actually mean? Despite Ekeler breaking out, Gordon was a significant part of the Chargers’ offense when he ended his holdout. He saw 13.6 carries per game and 17 touches, averaging 75.7 yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns. If we simply gave Jackson that workload – and we shouldn’t, as Ekeler’s usage will deservedly tick upward –it’s possible that Jackson could be an even greater fantasy performer than Gordon. Gordon’s been a fantasy mainstay based largely on volume and touchdown efficiency, but he’s only averaged more than four yards per carry once in five seasons.
The addition of Kelley in the draft has spooked some off Jackson, but the metrics above tell us that Kelley is insurance for Ekeler. Jackson’s pass-blocking deficiency is a problem that, if it doesn’t improve, could cap his ceiling for his career. In the short term, if Ekeler got hurt, it’s unlikely the Chargers would entrust Jackson to be back there on passing downs putting their first round pick Justin Herbert (let’s be honest he’s going to play sooner rather than later) at risk. Jackson will enter 2020 as a safe bet to blow away his career highs in attempts and touches, and should become an RB2, especially if Tyrod Taylor is at QB opening up running lanes.