Fantasy Football Breakouts: Duke Johnson's Time May Have Finally Arrived

Duke Johnson is one of the most underrated running backs in football, and despite him not having any particularly impressive fantasy seasons since he entered the NFL in 2015 I believe he has the ability to be a late bloomer.

For Johnson, the only thing he lacks is opportunity. Johnson is primarily known as a receiver out of the backfield, and he’s one of the best in football. He averages 73 targets a season and almost 60 receptions a year. While those numbers make him a fringe RB2 in full-PPR formats, and mostly an afterthought in every other league outside of bye-heavy weeks, they don’t tell the entire story. Throughout his career, Johnson has been stuck behind a traditional bell cow, or at the very least limited to obvious passing downs. He has started 12 of 80 games, and has never logged 105 rushing attempts. Read another way, Johnson has never been handed the keys and given a chance to be a lead dog. That is not due to performance.

Johnson has long been an analytical darling. He has averaged more than four yards per carry in every campaign since 2016, averaging at least 4.9 yards per carry three times. He graded seventh overall as a runner per PFF, 15th overall (offensive grade equal to Joe Mixon), and seven spots ahead of new teammate David Johnson. In fact, as a receiver he graded out as 71.2 slightly behind David Johnson (74.5), but the difference is not big.

David Johnson represents a big threat to Duke’s playing time. David Johnson was acquired in Bill O’Brien’s massively mocked DeAndre Hopkins trade, so he is likely to start out the season riding David Johnson as a three-down back. But per Football Outsiders, David Johnson posted a -10.8% DVOA; his decline was visible on the field, and in his playing time which became non-existent as he fell behind Chase Edmonds on the depth chart and was further buried when the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake. There’s a case for David Johnson returning value on his current ADP – I made it here – but there’s an equal chance he is shot. If so, Duke Johnson’s waiting in the wings and the Texans have no quality depth behind these two. Duke Johnson ranked two spots ahead of David Johnson as an overall receiving RB per Football Outsiders, but both excelled. Clearly, O’Brien is planning to use his RBs a ton in the passing game, so even though David Johnson is in for a high usage rate, Duke Johnson is going to get his opportunities as well.

These favorable metrics make Duke Johnson a worthy gamble even if you’re skeptical of how much he’ll see the field. David Johnson played in nine games last season, and just one game in 2017, so he is no lock to last the whole year. Even if David Johnson is a workhorse, he’ll still need some rest and Duke Johnson has proven efficient even with limited use. Lastly, if you’re banking on a David Johnson injury (you shouldn’t), this is the year to invest in Duke as a handcuff. Buddy Howell (who?) is the only other back on the roster as of now, and any further additions are likely flotsam. Carlos Hyde succeeded in this offense last year, but he’s gone to Seattle. Devonta Freeman’s price tag is likely to keep him a free agent, and LeSean McCoy is burnt toast. Even if they signed on, they’re mere depth. Duke Johnson has a strong chance to set a career high in touches, and get a chance to prove he can maintain a leading workload. If he gets that chance, he could be 2020’s Austin Ekeler.