Fantasy Football Breakouts: Mecole Hardman Ready To Run Into Fantasy Relevance

Mecole Hardman is one of the fastest players you will ever see. But while speed kills, it doesn’t always make for a great football player, or a fantasy asset. High hopes for Hardman’s rookie season were dashed before Week 1 when Tyreek Hill was unexpectedly not suspended, but Hardman still managed to flash fantasy potential. Is he ready for the mythical Year 2 breakout?

His year end numbers aren’t much to look at – 26 receptions, 536 yards, and six touchdowns. He also had 27 kick returns for 704 yards and a 104-yard touchdown, bringing back memories of former Chief Dante Hall. The “Human Joystick” was one of the best return men in history, and he had some moments as a wide receiver, but was only ever dominant and consistent on special teams. For all Hardman’s speed, there’s a world where he is another Dante Hall. I think there’s more to him though.

The NFL has a lot of fast players, but Hardman is a different animal. He has a way of making his limited touches count. Five of his six touchdowns were scored in games in which he had two or fewer receptions. None of his touchdowns were from fewer than 21 yards out, and he averaged 18.5 yards per touch. The Chiefs do have a loaded crew of skill players, but Andy Reid would be insane to not want to get the ball in Hardman’s hands even more.

There’s more to him than just speed, too. Hardman was the top WR with fewer than 50 targets per Football Outsiders, posting a 181 DYAR and 44.1% DVOA. While Hardman obviously was targeted far less than the elite players, that DVOA is higher than Chris Godwin’s and he received a 68.7 receiving grade from PFF.

Talent alone won’t be enough to make Hardman a fantasy relevant receiver on a weekly basis. He needs opportunity, and the Chiefs’ offseason could be viewed as unfavorable. Tyreek Hill is obviously the No. 1 in Kansas City, and Hardman was widely viewed as a replacement for Hill when he was drafted. When Hill didn’t get suspended, the Chiefs now had two receivers in the corps with overlapping skills, and Hill is going to be the target hound. The Chiefs drafted a pass-catching running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and re-signed nominal No. 2 receiver Sammy Watkins, himself a former Top 10 overall pick. There’s also TE Travis Kelce, arguably the top tight end in the NFL. Hardman is in an offense with many mouths to feed, and it could be tough even with the best QB in football directing traffic. Hill was head and shoulders above the rest of the receiver corps in every metric, but Hardman’s grade was basically a dead heat with Watkins. Hardman averaged 20.7 yards per reception to Watkins’ 12, caught a higher percentage of his targets and only posted 135 fewer receiving yards despite almost 50 fewer targets. The Chiefs are all about gashing defenses with chunk plays, and Hardman is not going to be a focus of defensive attention as long as Hill and Kelce are there. If KC decides to start allocating more of Watkins’ targets for Hardman, or even designing plays specifically for him to get the rock, he is going to thrive without an elite target share. Andy Reid is too smart a coach not to feed Hardman more, especially as he develops with a Super Bowl season under his belt.