Fantasy Football Breakouts: Is Anthony Miller Finally Going to Break Through?
Anthony Miller had some buzz as a potential second-year breakout entering 2019, and while he earned more playing time and targets, he failed to deliver a big season. He finished the season with 52 receptions, 656 yards and two touchdowns, the latter a steep drop from his seven scores as a rookie. The lost touchdowns essentially tanked his value, and have contributed to his No. 132 ADP.
Miller is talented, and there is one big reason to partially write off his inconsistency in his first two seasons – QB Mitch Trubisky. Despite Trubisky’s lofty draft pedigree, he is one of the NFL’s most inaccurate QBs and his shortcomings have contributed to a run-heavy approach. Miller shares the field with Allen Robinson, who soaks up the majority of the target share, so Miller has to live on scraps from arguably the worst regular starter in the league. That is likely to change in 2020. The Bears traded for Nick Foles, and he is expected to usurp Trubisky for the starting gig in training camp. Many are hoping this leads to Miller hitting his ceiling.
I’m not so sure. Miller graded out at 67.9 per PFF, which is decent but doesn’t jump out. He ranked 58th among 81 receivers with 50 or more passes, posted a -7.6% receiver DVOA and a pedestrian 38 Defensive Yards above Replacement player (DYAR) according to FootballOutsiders. My enthusiasm to see what he does now freed from Trubisky is also tempered by the fact that Nick Foles isn’t special. He has ridden high off his Super Bowl run in relief of Carson Wentz a few years ago, but it’s possible he just ran hot in a scheme that was perfect for him to thrive. He graded out at 65 by PFF, putting him in a tie for 26th with Daniel Jones, and just one spot ahead of Trubisky (64.3).
Foles got hurt early in his only season in Jacksonville, but still did play in four disastrous games. He posted a 33.6 QBR (flawed stat, but still – ew), -21.3% DVOA and had a -77 DYAR. That’s disgusting stuff, and he was thoroughly outplayed by Gardner Minshew, a sixth-round rookie. While Foles has shined in brief runs with the Eagles we’ve also seen him turn in some mediocre performances with Philly and stomach turning runs with the Rams and Jaguars. Foles is probably an upgrade on Trubisky as a passer, but the Bears may still end up being a bottom NFL offense with Foles at the helm. I’m not anticipating Foles ushering in a ton more passing volume, and whatever passing volume there is will continue to be dominated by Robinson. Combine that with the fact that Miller wasn’t blowing anyone away by any metrics, and his perceived ceiling might be a lie.
Miller has three career games with more than 100 receiving yards, never caught 10 passes in a game, and never notched a multi-touchdown game. There’s talent here, but he’s not elite talent, and the situation in Chicago isn’t conducive to a breakout. He’s worth a lottery ticket late pick, but I’m not sold as a breakout.